Editorial | Russia is strengthening its grip on Belarus before the new phase of the war in Ukraine

Editorial|Editorial

Qun’s eyes this week were on Ukraine and the Eurasian Economic Forum convened by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu flew to Minsk. There, the defense ministers of Russia and Belarus signed an official agreement on the placement of Russian tactical nuclear warheads in Belarus.

The official agreement had only been a matter of time since Putin said in March that Russia was preparing to transfer nuclear warheads to Belarus. However, Thursday’s signing was a new step for Russia in the systematic severance of relations with the West. Even the Finns may have noticed: Russia closed the accounts of the embassies and terminated the agreement on bilateral extra military assessment visits.

The transfer of nuclear weapons is always a serious matter, which Russia knows well. That is why it has been so happy to remind the West of its plans to place nuclear warheads in Belarus, i.e. closer to NATO and EU countries. When the goal is intimidation, nuclear warheads are useful even before they have been moved anywhere. Ambiguity only adds to the worried talk in the West, so it is maintained. Thus, the leader of Belarus Alyaksandr Lukashenka already had time to announce that Russia has started to move the nuclear warheads, although it has been reported elsewhere that the finalization of the placement locations is still in progress.

The probability of a nuclear strike is still low. For Russia, it’s not just about intimidation with nuclear weapons and flirting with the possibility of a nuclear strike. Placing Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus is also a way to further strengthen Russia’s grip on Belarus. The nuclear warheads still belong to Russia, and their locations will practically become Russia’s permanent military bases in Belarus.

Swhen Russia tightened its grip on Belarus even more, an attack by Ukrainian forces was expected in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s plans to liberate Russian-occupied territories are clearly making Russia nervous. Russia’s success in capturing Bahmut really only emphasized the weakness of the Russian forces. Although Russia had made the capture of Bahmut a matter of honor, it had to take a year and sacrifice a huge number of soldiers to capture the small and strategically rather insignificant city.

This was only emphasized by the spread of the war to the Russian side for a while, when Russian forces opposing the Kremlin and supporting Ukraine attacked the Belgorod area. The Russian authorities called the events terrorist attacks and vowed revenge, but the situation was not only embarrassing for Russia but also unsettling.

This is known in Ukraine. Ukraine has indeed increased the psychological pressure in many ways. The clearest sign is the constant rumor mill about a major invasion of Ukraine. The successful foreign visits of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the promises of support and new arms deliveries are also having an effect, when the combat morale of the Russian troops is known to be poor. In Ukraine, it is calculated that the attack progresses most easily when the Russians flee from its path, as happened, for example, in the Kharkiv region.

UKraina has cleverly kept its attack plans a secret while training its own troops and allowing Russia to sacrifice its own.

Despite the risks, Ukraine has many advantages on its side, but it is also under pressure to turn the tide of the war and liberate its territories. The Russian leadership does not seem to be bothered by the huge losses of men, so the continuation of the current juncture suits it better. Persecution and propaganda keep the home front quiet as the Russian leadership hopes for a change in the US president.

Still, Ukraine has the most important thing: soldiers who understand what they are fighting for.

The editorials are HS’s positions on a current topic. The articles are prepared by HS’s editorial department, and they reflect the magazine principle line.