Editorial|Editorial
Rather, if President Vladimir Putin’s intention was to weaken NATO, the threat to Ukraine has condensed the sometimes very contentious ranks of NATO countries.
Russian and the strategic competition of the West has escalated into a psychological war. The struggle is not just about the fate of Ukraine, but about the collapse of the entire European security order.
Russia is laughing at the “hysteria” of the United States that Russia would soon attack Ukraine on a large scale. Being the target of a joke is a small price to pay if the American information warfare creates a halt to the attack. US President Joe Biden gave a speech on the situation in Ukraine on Tuesday, giving more room for diplomacy.
There is no reason to doubt estimates of Russia’s readiness to attack, because even Russia does not just move around 130,000 troops. On Tuesday, Ukraine reported cyber-attacks on the country’s defense ministry and two state-owned banks.
Although diplomacy is the number one track, the United States, NATO and the European Union are also introducing intimidation. As a result of the attack, Russia and its leadership would be isolated from the West in a whole new way.
President Vladimir Putin signals readiness to resume talks. He would clearly need something to present to the home audience as a victory. Now there is speculation not only about the attack but also about what the concession of the West could be. Finland’s room for maneuver would also be affected if the solution to the acute crisis limited Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Russia demands that Ukraine not become a member of NATO. The requirement is impossible – in theory. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Europe’s largest NATO country that visited Kiev on Monday, said Ukraine’s NATO membership was not in sight. On Wednesday in Moscow, Scholz reiterated the message, saying NATO enlargement to the east is unlikely to be met as long as he and Putin are in power.
Scholz’s choice of word immediately drove him to a situation where the statement had to be clarified on Tuesday night. “Helsinki’s basic principles, including the principle of free association – which also applies to NATO – are not negotiable,” Scholz said.
Commentary on NATO’s enlargement to the east did not close the door on Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership, but was rather an attempt to send a message to Russia that it would not use NATO as an excuse to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.
If Putin’s intention was to weaken NATO, rather the threat has only summed up the sometimes contentious ranks of NATO countries. NATO is concentrating more power on its eastern members, although the alliance maintains a low profile in order not to provoke clashes with Russia. A thousand troops assembled in each of NATO’s member states will be transferred to Romania and Bulgaria. The same may apply to Hungary and Slovenia. NATO air forces and navies appear to be vigilant.
A major change in NATO-Russia relations was seen when Russia occupied Crimea in 2014. NATO changed its thinking about European defense. Troops were brought to the Baltics and Poland, and NATO set up new strike forces. Now, NATO is responding to tensions in the Black Sea region as planned, but the strength of the forces in the Baltic states and Poland will also increase slightly.
The new forces in Romania and Bulgaria will be decided at a NATO defense ministerial meeting in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday. Finland and Sweden, as well as the EU, will also take part in the section on the situation in Ukraine. Finland hears the views of NATO countries and is allowed to share its own.
European countries re-evaluate their relationship with Russia. It is about our own defense capabilities, but also about weighing economic relations and dependencies. A strong economic bond with Russia does not necessarily promote peaceful coexistence.
NATO is also balancing with Russia, which is unpredictable and, in one way or another, guaranteed to surprise. Russia will tighten and loosen the screw on this crisis for a long time to come. Admittedly, this is no surprise to anyone.
The editorials are HS’s statements on a topical issue. The writings are prepared by HS’s editorial staff and reflect the magazine principle.
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