Editorial Russia is looking for a long conflict with Europe

Reconciliation with the West does not support Russia’s policy goals. Russia is strong when guns talk, and for them to talk, there must be a conflict situation.

If something after this week is clear, so that tensions in Europe continue. At the end of a busy week of talks, Russian representatives said that from Russia’s point of view, the talks were deadlocked. The threat of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is even greater.

For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been building a political story in which Russia is a victim of Western intrigue. Russia considers it a historical injustice that NATO has accepted new members since the end of the Cold War. By demanding a new division of interests, Russia brought the United States to the negotiating table.

The West is trying to prevent war, but reconciliation does not support Russia’s political goals. Russia is strong when guns talk, and for them to talk, there must be a conflict situation. For years, Russia has considered it a power struggle with the West and is prepared to sustain the conflict for a long time.

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Russia has brought more than a hundred thousand troops to the Ukrainian border. Russia is still threatening Europe with what it calls “military-technical”. Ukraine is currently undergoing a cyber attack. Although there are not enough troops on the border to occupy Ukraine for years, Russia is militarily adept. It also has recent war experience from Syria.

One indication of the rapid movements of Russian special forces was obtained when Russia intervened in the power struggle in Kazakhstan by sending troops to the country on behalf of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (KTJS). Putin does not want uprisings or pro-Western democracies in Russia. Ukraine’s Putin wants to stay on his knees, but that is not Russia’s only goal.

Russia got the world’s attention. Now the Kremlin is counting on future transfers. Russia wants to limit NATO’s room for maneuver. At the same time, Russia is evaluating its relations with China and India, as the war would cut apart Europe.

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For Russia, the most important meeting of the week was bilateral talks with the United States. The NATO-Russia talks in Brussels and the OSCE meeting in Vienna, on the other hand, were a mere theater for Russia, knowing that the United States only wanted to invite Eastern European countries and, of course, Ukraine to the table.

At the NATO table, a counter-offer was made to Russia over arms control talks – although they can be held in other ways. NATO is playing time for diplomacy. It also knows that every day costs Russia a lot. Not even Russia can keep troops on the Ukrainian border indefinitely.

In its own calculations, Russia must assess the consequences of the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the EU following a possible attack. They are also being evaluated in EU countries. Russia can calculate that many European countries have even more to lose in terms of cutting off gas and oil trade than Russia.

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EU countries the foreign ministers met this week in Brest, France. The topic was the security situation. France is now holding the EU presidency, so President Emmanuel Macron has a place to show off how Europe is strengthening its security in the midst of a great power race.

In Russia’s eyes, the EU is and will remain weak. EU countries lack a unified understanding of Russia policy. Now it is becoming clear to everyone at least that there is no endless fear and retreat in front of Russia. Relations between the West and Russia are inevitably moving towards new frost records.

The editorials are HS’s statements on a topical issue. The writings are prepared by HS’s editorial staff and reflect the magazine principle.

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