Editorial | Election campaigns are launched in an atmosphere of great uncertainty

Editorial|Editorial

Last over the weekend, the chairman of the Sdp’s parliamentary group, Antti Lindtman, jumped over the news bar by announcingthat government spending will have to be cut in the next government term. The exit was interpreted as a reversal in the Sdp’s economic policy, because in this term of government expenditures have been financed by taking on more debt.

Indebtedness has largely been dictated by necessity, but it has also been offered economic justifications from the so-called new monetary theory, which in Sdp has been represented in particular by MP Matias Mäkynen. Prime Minister Sanna Marin seemed to align herself when she shared on Twitter of the articlein which researcher Antti Ronkainen criticized the policy of the European Central Bank.

Lindtman’s line can be seen as an attempt to repair the damage caused by Marin’s tweet. It could also be intended to strengthen the party’s economic side before the election campaign, where the coalition is expected to accuse the current government of irresponsible debt-taking. Finally, it can be seen as an opening towards a cyan government. Or all three of these. In any case, Lindtman’s exit showed that the parties are starting to look for stepping stones for the parliamentary elections, which are six months away.

Elections the starting layout seems very clear. The coalition has run away to a lead of about five percentage points in the polls. In a normal situation, chairman Petteri Orpo could already start looking at fine art in the prime minister’s office. But in this situation, nothing is normal – not in politics, not in Finland, not in the world.

The coalition has to keep an eye on Sdp and basic Finns. Sdp has a completely exceptional political animal in Sanna Marin, which has the means to steer the conversation in the direction it wants. In addition to the economic tweet, it was reminded by the interview answer that became an online hit, in which Marin said that the war in Ukraine will end when the Russians leave Ukraine. No one is interested in an orphan’s answers, let alone Instagram photos.

Basic Finns, on the other hand, have the ability to choose an election theme that resonates with the people and make the most of it. There is now an abundance of attractive themes. The other parties are most afraid of the fact that the EU will wrap up a joint energy support package in the winter so that the Basic Finns can say that the Finns pay the electricity bills of the Italians.

The tone of the election debate will be decided by what happens in Ukraine, Russia and Finland’s borders. Is NATO membership still open? How bad is the economy going to get? Russia can try to influence the election with its words or actions.

First place in addition, the success of the center is emerging as a special source of excitement for the elections. Two consecutive terms of government have eroded the party’s support so thin that a bad result would probably force the center to favor the opposition.

Then neither the current government nor a right-wing government would be put together, and the only possibility would be blue-red. Such a result would make the coalition’s first place quite a Pyrrhic victory, as the Sdp could dictate its terms to the winner. A Swedish-style minority government has been proposed as an additional piece to the government game, but it does not seem likely.

The central game hasn’t even been played yet. Chairwoman Annika Saarikko would like to keep the party in the governing structure, but a ten percent election result is not enough.

A lot depends on what kind of country and world you live in during spring. Are people looking for security or change in elections? Are they angry or scared? The mood of the day may favor the government or the opposition, traditional parties or challengers. And that can change in one fell swoop.

The editorials are HS’s positions on a current topic. The articles are prepared by HS’s editorial department, and they reflect the magazine principle line.