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The fight against inflation that has raised interest rates in much of the world, the fall in trade, wars and escalations of conflicts in different regions and the slow recovery of China in the international sphere have led the financial institution to forecast a global growth of only 2.4% for 2024, that is, two tenths less than 2023 and very far from the 6.2% reported in 2021 in the rebound of the pandemic.
Developing countries would be the most affected by the weak growth expected for the world in the new year. World Bank executives emphatically expressed their concern about countries that have high debts that complicate their path to strategic investments to fight poverty or climate change.
“Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries, especially the poorest, caught in a trap: with crippling levels of debt and tenuous access to food for almost one in three people,” he said. Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, in a statement.
At the top of the list of countries that could contribute to the economic slowdown is the United States, which although in 2023 reversed the World Bank forecast with a growth of 2.5%, that is, 1.4 percentage points above the forecast , by 2024 a slowdown is expected that will take it to 1.6%.
And just as the data from the world's leading economy surprised the financial institution, the total figures also exceeded the Bank's outlook and the global economy grew half a percentage point faster in 2023 than had been estimated in June. Numbers that lead the international lender to conclude that “the risk of a global recession has decreased.”
China, the second global superpower, would grow 4.5% this year and 4.3% in 2025, data that shows the fragility of its trade when compared to 5.2% in 2023.
IMF: “global debt will exceed 100% of world GDP due to pressure from the US and China”
The Asian giant is struggling with problems in the real estate sector, consumers who have had to live through periods of deflation, rampant youth unemployment and a high level of elderly population that has complicated its ability to grow.
With AP
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