The World Economic Outlook report, presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on October 12, reveals a slight decrease in growth estimates compared to the document issued in July 2021. In this sense, the multilateral organization cites the “Fissures arising from the Covid-19 pandemic” as the main cause of the situation.
According to the text, the problems derived from the Covid-19 outbreak and that caused a global recession, appear persistent. In this sense, the growth projection is impacted by a deterioration in advanced economies, affected by interruptions in the supply chain, and the disparities in vaccination rates between what it considers rich and poor countries.
These situations, for the organism they could be persistent and in view of this scenario a growth of 5.9% is estimated in 2021, only one tenth less than the projection of 6% presented in July.
“Compared to our July report, the global growth projection for this year has been marginally revised down to 5.9 percent, and has not changed for 2022 at 4.9 percent (…) The recovery global continues, but momentum has weakened due to the pandemic. The highly communicable Delta variant, the death toll from the disease approaching five million and the risks, slows a full return to normal, “said Gita Gopinath , chief economist of the IMF.
IMF Projections: 2022
S. Africa🇿🇦: 2.2%https://t.co/j0FIiCr9li #WEO pic.twitter.com/SLNNQqHyt1
– IMF (@IMFNews) October 12, 2021
Gopinath, in his presentation, made clear the IMF’s concern about the “great divergences” that exist in economic evolution after the pandemic produced, in part, as a consequence of different access to vaccines.
“While more than 60% of the population in advanced economies is vaccinated with the full regimen, and some are already receiving booster doses, about 96% of the population in low-income countries remain unvaccinated,” warned the economist.
On this, Gopinath explains that advanced economies will regain their pre-pandemic levels in 2022, while those in development, except China, will have to wait several more years to resume them.
By country, India will once again be the economy with the highest growth, with a rate of 9.5% in 2021, and unchanged from the July forecasts.
Likewise, the United States will show a growth of 6%, as opposed to the 7% forecast in July, and China expects an expansion of 8%, according to the document.
Chile registers the highest growth among South American countries
In this regard, Chile shows itself as the one with the highest growth within the region with an expansion of its GDP of 11% for this year. According to the agency Puerto Rico, with -0.6%, and Venezuela (-5.0%) will be those that show contractions this year.
With EFE, Reuters and AP