For him lopeobradorist regime he macroeconomic environment result favorable in these elections 2024. Despite his multiple failures in health, education, security, energy, environmental issue, corruptionthe signs of the economy remain stable and are a bonus that tries to exploit with the voters. It has no balance of payments or exchange rate problems, it has controlled the inflationdebt as a percentage of GDP almost remains constant, the post-pandemic employment recovered and there was a great increase in minimum salary that, together with the transfers in cash at families and to the remittanceshas a electorate whose monetary wealth it has improved.
In 1992, in William Clinton’s legendary campaign that took the presidency of the United States from George Bush Sr., who had a 90 percent approval rating, James Carville, Clinton’s campaign manager, coined the term “it’s the economy stupid,” to remember that It was not the big issues of geopolitics that interested the electoratebut their concerns of the daily life.
In democratic regimes, good financial performance is a bonus in favor of victory, although it is not automatic, since we are seeing that today in the United States this situation does not favor President Biden, who is being surpassed by his opponent Donald Trump. In this case, the type of campaign is decisive.
In Mexico, the group in power was punished for mismanagement of the economy on several occasions. In 1988 he had to impose Carlos Salinas through fraud for that reason. The same thing happened in 2000, when Fox of the PAN took the presidency from the PRI after a turbulent six-year term of Ernesto Zedillo. Among other things, in 2012, the bad accounts delivered by Felipe Calderón allowed the PRI to return with Enrique Peña Nieto.
Before the democratic electoral transition began, with good or bad economy the government won the elections. The arrival of José López Portillo in 1976 and that of Miguel de la Madrid in 1982 were state elections, assigning an absolute majority to the winning candidate. They did and undid with the electoral results. But as the transition began through consensual electoral reforms, competitive presidential replacements occurred. However, today there are no electoral institutions that allow them to do the same and easily impose an overwhelming victory.
The 2018 election was a watershed where the economy was not decisive, since Peña Nieto’s results were good. The issues that most influenced citizens were corruption at all levels, violencethe impunity, Ayotzinapathe gasoline bombs, so the electorate was moved more by cultural, ideological and political grievances.
From the above it can be deduced that the benefits of putting money in the hands of families through social programs may not be as effective when it comes to voting, since Peña Nieto’s negatives were magnified during the López Obrador administration: there are more deaths and disappeared, the country was militarized, corruption is still rampant and few go to jail, gasoline and huachicol continue, the health sector was dismantled and education and science were abandoned, the energy program failed. Likewise, resources were wasted for productive investment in mega-projects that are not yielding results.
In short, the vote in Mexican society is more determined by emotion and grievance, which rivals corporate handouts and controls. The coin is in the air. Hopefully there will be surprises this Sunday and an authoritarian regime will not be imposed.
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