Washington.- Now that he’s trying to return to the White House, former President Donald J. Trump has pledged to halve energy costs for Americans within a year as part of a plan to reduce inflation and bring mortgage rates back to record lows.
But economists and analysts — and Trump’s own record during his first term — suggest he is unlikely to be able to deliver on those promises.
Trump’s pledge to dramatically lower the cost of living hinges in part on his plans to rapidly expand oil and gas drilling and reduce government impediments to empowering plant construction, which he says could cut energy bills by “more than half.”
When prices go down, he often says, interest rates and mortgage rates will go down too.
However, Trump has not cited other economic analyses to support his claims.
Economic research and historical experience suggest that presidents have only a limited effect on locally regulated electric utilities or on the cost of oil, which is a globally traded commodity.
“He doesn’t really have the tools to bring down oil prices and be able to cut gasoline prices in half,” said Steven Kamin, a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist.
In short, experts and past evidence suggest that Trump is overpromising on key economic issues related to prices and interest rates.
And that fits a pattern he’s established during his previous campaigns — in which he has emphasized huge, popular results while paying little attention to costs or how he could deliver on his promises.
Whether a president can help lower electricity prices a bit is a result of complex factors such as higher inflation, increased demand, regulations and some shocks such as extreme temperatures.
As for Trump’s concrete promise to lower gasoline prices to less than $2 a gallon, several energy analysts said there was no obvious way he could follow through on that promise.
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