Part of the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and the euro is due to the “low base” effect, Ekaterina Bezsmertnaya, dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia on October 7.
The expert noted that on September 30, the market actively reacted to expectations of the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions: for the first time since July 21 of this year, the dollar traded below 56 rubles, the euro overcame the minimum that was observed in October 2014.
Market participants were actively selling the currencies of “unfriendly countries”, fearing restrictions on the National Clearing Center (NCC), which could lead to a halt in exchange trading in currencies, widening exchange rate spreads, and increased volatility of rates, Bezsmertnaya specified.
“In addition to this, the flight from “toxic” currencies also provoked an increase in geopolitical tensions in anticipation of the signing of agreements on the entry of new territories into the Russian Federation,” she added.
Details of the new package of EU sanctions against became known on 6 October.
“Sanctions against the NCC were not introduced, and this allowed the market to “win back” the fall observed at the end of last week,” the economist emphasized.
At the same time, according to her, the implementation of the next package of restrictions will eventually lead to a reduction in Russia’s trade surplus. She drew attention to the fact that it is the ratio between exports and imports that determines the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in recent months.
“The new sanctions, in particular, include the establishment of an upper price limit for Russian oil and oil products transported by sea to third countries, a ban on the import of a number of goods from Russia. And this, of course, is a factor that provokes the weakening of the ruble, ”said Bezsmertnaya.
At the same time, Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist of Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, emphasized that, in addition to the risk of NCC being disconnected from settlements in US dollars and euros due to sanctions, the tax period has gone into the past week.
“At the end of September, it was these factors that put a lot of pressure on the exchange rate on the stock exchange. The rates at the operating cash desks (exchangers) did not react to these events, since the real foreign exchange market is not related to the problems of the NCC and there was a rush demand for cash,” he said.
The economist noted that at present, exchange rates have decreased due to the decline in excitement from leaving Russians, and on the stock exchange they have grown due to the disappearance of these factors.
“At the end of each month there will again be a tax period. And the risk of imposing sanctions on the NCC has also not disappeared, so everything can happen again, ”concluded Prokudin.
Earlier that day, it was reported that, according to the trading data of the Moscow Exchange, the euro exchange rate during the auction exceeded 60 rubles for the first time since September 22, the dollar reached 61.31 rubles.
Bogdan Zvarich, chief analyst at Banki.ru, expressed his opinion on October 7 that the dollar could strengthen to 65 rubles within a week and a half.
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