The federal budget surplus by the end of 2021 may amount to 200-700 billion rubles, or 0.2-0.6% of GDP. This is stated in the VTB Capital review, which Izvestia got acquainted with.
Calculating revenues from hydrocarbons, the Ministry of Finance assumed that the average price of Urals oil for the year would be $ 45.3 per barrel, but in the end it turned out to be higher, senior economist of VTB Capital Alexander Isakov explained to Izvestia. According to him, the average cost of a barrel of Urals in 2021 will be $ 65.4, which could bring 2.2 trillion rubles of additional oil and gas revenues to the budget.
Economic activity also turned out to be higher than the Finance Ministry’s expectations, and its rapid recovery could bring an additional RUB 1.5 trillion to the budget by the end of the year. Thus, in aggregate, receipts to the federal treasury may amount to about 22.5 trillion rubles, the economist concluded.
“According to our calculations, by the end of 2021, the federal budget may be executed with a surplus of 0.2–0.7 trillion rubles, or 0.2–0.6% of GDP, while the current budget law provides for a deficit of 2.8 trillion rubles (2.4% of GDP), ”the review says.
The Ministry of Finance told Izvestia that reaching a budget surplus, which depends on the dynamics of oil prices, is not an end in itself. To a greater extent, one should focus on the primary structural balance, which is calculated at the base price of hydrocarbons and reflects the level of state participation in the economy.
Read more in the exclusive material from Izvestia:
We will save the ruble: in 2021 the budget can be executed with a surplus