Economist Grigoriev predicted the weakening of the ruble to 90 per dollar
In the second half of June, the ruble strengthened, but in July the trend will change towards weakening, believes candidate of economic sciences, financial expert Vladimir Grigoryev. He predicted the future of the national currency in a conversation with Lenta.ru.
The strengthening of the ruble has recently been influenced by a number of factors, the economist noted. Firstly, against the backdrop of the introduction of new sanctions, exporters and investors sought to get rid of the currency, since it was unclear what would happen to it next and how it would be possible to work with it. Secondly, there was a certain decline in imports. “The sanctions significantly complicated its passage. This also led to a certain imbalance in the market, due to the fact that demand for currency decreased, which again contributed to the strengthening of the ruble,” Grigoryev explained.
Thirdly, one of China’s largest banks, Bank of China, stopped accepting yuan payments from Russian organizations under sanctions, which also hit currencies, and the yuan in particular. In addition, the tax period had its impact – when exporters sell currency in order to pay taxes, the source told Lenta.ru.
This combination of factors affected the currency market in the second half of June and led to the strengthening of the ruble that we observed. Now the effect of these factors is gradually beginning to level out
“Firstly, the authorities have relaxed the requirements for exporters to sell foreign currency earnings. First of all, this is due to the fact that the established exchange rate is not beneficial to the budget. It is beneficial for the ruble to be weaker. That’s one. The second point is that as participants in export-import operations adapt to the new realities, the export-import balance will begin to recover, that is, imports will begin to grow, and demand for currency will begin to grow, and I think that the ruble, of course, will gradually weaken,” the economist shared.
With a high degree of probability, in July the exchange rate will return to the position it was in at the end of May and the beginning of June – plus or minus 90 rubles per dollar, Grigoriev believes.
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Earlier, a similar forecast was given by BCS World of Investments analyst Denis Buivolov. According to him, in the third quarter of 2024, the official exchange rate of the Russian currency to the dollar may reach the 90-92 ruble zone.
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