The Prime Minister explains that his striking return to Rome was planned before the end of the NATO summit in Madrid
The question Italians are asking themselves is no longer whether Mario Draghi’s government will fall or not, but when it will. Sixteen months after the birth of the heterogeneous government coalition made up of nine parties, it seems increasingly difficult for the Executive in Rome to be able to speed up the legislature, which ends naturally in the first months of 2023. The last jolt has been experienced Draghi due to the internal crisis suffered by the 5 Star Movement (M5E), the largest political force in Parliament until, last week, it was fractured by the birth of a split led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luigi di Maio . One of the underlying reasons for the break comes from the will of the president of the M5E, Giuseppe Conte, to interrupt the shipment of weapons to Ukraine, something that Draghi and Di Maio do not accept.
After the now debunked rumor emerged that Draghi had asked M5E founder Beppe Grillo to remove Conte because of how uncomfortable he is, speculation arose about a possible departure of the movement from the government coalition. This interpretation was also supported by the fact that the prime minister returned to Rome on Wednesday night after leaving the NATO summit held in Madrid. Draghi had to calm things down this Thursday, when he guaranteed the continuity of the Executive and explained that the return to the Italian capital was already planned, since he wanted to participate in the Council of Ministers in which the extension of the aid has been approved families and companies to face the increase in the price of energy.
“The Government is not at risk,” said the former president of the European Central Bank, assuring that he is “optimistic” about the chances that the Cabinet he leads will finish the legislature. Draghi has also categorically denied that he had asked Grillo for Conte’s head and has insisted that he maintains an open dialogue with the latter, whose contribution to the Executive he has applauded and thanked.
“From the beginning I said that this government could not be done without the M5E, that it has made an important contribution in these months and that it will surely maintain it,” said the prime minister, who would not be “content” with this political force withdrew from the government coalition and limited itself to offering foreign support in Parliament. That is one of the options that, according to analysts, Conte would have considered to try to occupy a political opposition space and try to come back in the polls. The latest polls give the M5E after Di Maio’s split less than 7% in voting intention, almost 5 times less than the result obtained in the last general elections, held in 2018.
Although Draghi has managed to channel this crisis with Conte, the expectations are not very reassuring for the coming months. To the wide possibilities that frictions with the M5E will arise again is added the increasingly manifest discomfort of the League in the government coalition. This conservative party led by Matteo Salvini is desperate at the speed with which the Brothers of Italy, the political force of the far-right Giorgia Meloni, who represents the only opposition that Draghi’s Executive has today in Parliament, is eating up the ground.
Political commentators believe that Salvini could withdraw the League from the government coalition after the summer holidays. The fracture could even be consummated before two bills that are unacceptable to the League go ahead, one on the legalization of cannabis and another to give nationality to the children of immigrants who have been studying in the country for five years. Both are promoted by the M5E and by the Democratic Party, the main center-left formation.
In the event that Conte or Salvini finally decide to break the Government, Draghi has made it very clear that he is not willing to lead a new Executive for the remainder of the legislature even if he had sufficient support. Italy would then be forced to hold early elections.
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