WASHINGTON — Former President Donald J. Trump vividly recounted how the audience at his climactic debate with Vice President Kamala Harris was on his side. Except the debate took place in an empty room. No one “went crazy,” as he put it, because no one was there.
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Anyone’s memory can fail. But the debate had taken place just a week before. And it was far from the only time Trump seemed confused, forgetful or incoherent. It happens so often that it doesn’t even generate much attention anymore.
It rambles, it repeats itself, it wanders from one thought to another—some of them difficult to understand, others unfinished, others objectively fantastic. He veers off into strange tangents about golf, sharks, and his own “beautiful” body. He recreates “a great day in Louisiana” after spending the day in Georgia. He expresses fear that North Korea is “trying to kill me” when he allegedly refers to Iran. As late as last month, Trump was still talking as if he were running against President Joseph R. Biden Jr., five weeks after he dropped out of the race. With Biden gone, Trump, at 78, is now the oldest presidential candidate from a major party in American history and would be the oldest president in American history if he wins and finishes another term. at 82 years old.
A review of interviews, statements and social media posts shows signs of change since he first took the political stage in 2015. He has often been disconnected from the truth, but over time his speeches have become darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, cussier, and increasingly obsessed with the past.
According to a computational analysis by The New York Times, Trump’s speeches at rallies now last an average of 82 minutes, up from 45 minutes in 2016. Proportionately, he uses 13 percent more all-or-nothing terms like “ always” and “never” than eight years ago, which some experts consider an indication of aging.
He now uses 32 percent more negative words than positive words, compared to 21 percent in 2016, which may be another indicator of cognitive change. And he uses curse words 69 percent more often than when he first ran, a trend that could reflect what experts call disinhibition. (A study by Stat, a health care news outlet, had similar findings.)
Trump frequently turns to the past as a frame of reference, often to the 1980s and 1990s, when he was in his tabloid-fueled heyday. He quotes fictional characters from that time like Hannibal Lecter from “The Silence of the Lips” (he meant “The Silence of the Lambs”), asks “Where is Johnny Carson? Bring back Johnny” (who died in 2005) and reflects on how attractive actor Cary Grant (“the most handsome man”) was. He asks his followers if they remember the landing in New York of Charles Lindbergh, who actually landed in Paris and did so long before Trump was born.
He seems confused about modern technology, suggesting that “most people have no idea what the hell a phone app is” in a country where 96 percent of people own a smartphone. If he sometimes seems stuck in the 1990s, there are times when he pines for the 1890s, portraying that decade as the happy period in American history and William McKinley as its model President because of his support for tariffs.
Although some elements of this are familiar, some who have known him for years say they notice a change.
Sarah Matthews, who was Trump’s deputy press secretary until she broke up with him over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack, said the former President had slowed down.
“I doubt anyone would ever say that Trump is the more polished speaker, but his more recent speeches seem to be more incoherent, and he’s rambling even more and has had some pretty notable moments of confusion,” Matthews said. “When he was running against Biden, maybe it wasn’t as noticeable.”
Trump dismisses any concerns. “I talk for two hours without prompters and if I say a word that’s a little out of place, they tell me, ‘You have cognitive impairment,’” he complained at a recent rally. He claims that it is an intentional and “brilliant” communication strategy.
Steven Cheung, the campaign’s communications director, called Trump “the strongest and most capable candidate” and dismissed suggestions that age has diminished him. “President Trump has more energy and more resilience than anyone in politics, and he is the smartest leader this Country has ever seen,” he said in a statement.
The former President has not been hampered politically by his age as much as Biden, in part because the current President appears physically frail, while Trump still exudes energy.
But for years, in fact, questions have been raised about Trump’s mental fitness. A 2022 study by a pair of academics at the University of Montana found that the complexity of Trump’s speech was significantly less than that of the average President in American history. (The same thing happened with Biden).
Trump’s level of complexity has remained relatively stable and has not decreased in recent years, the analysis found. But concerns about his age have grown as he attempts to return to office.
Experts said it was difficult to judge whether the changes in Trump’s speaking style could indicate typical age effects or some more significant condition.
“That can change with normal aging,” said Bradford Dickerson, a neurologist at Harvard Medical School. “But if you see a change in that kind of speaking ability over the course of a few years, I think it raises some real red flags.”
However, some who have spent time with Trump privately insist they don’t notice any difference.
Sam Nunberg, Trump’s former political adviser, said he still spoke to people who see him almost daily and had not heard of any concerns expressed about the former President’s age. “I don’t really see any major difference,” he said. “I just don’t see it.
“He is not linear,” he added. But “it never was.”
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