Donald Trump returns to the New York court this Tuesday for the final stretch of his trial, in which he awaits the decision of the 12 jurors with the risk of becoming the first former president in the history of the United States to be criminally convicted.
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The prosecution will insist that the 45th president of the United States (2017-2021) was guilty of falsifying accounting documents for his emporium, the Trump Organization, to hide a payment of $130,000 to former porn actress Stormy Daniels to avoid a sexual scandal, by end of his 2016 presidential campaign.
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They will highlight that through this payment, which they equate to a hidden campaign expense, Donald Trump “corrupted” the election.
Stormy Daniels, upon arrival at the New York court.
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The former Republican president, who won those elections by a narrow margin against Hillary Clinton, denies the relationship and presents himself as a victim of political persecution. He gave up testifying at the trial.
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The twelve members of the jury in the Donald Trump trial must soon issue their verdict in the case. Guilty or innocent, the decision will shake the United States. What are the possible scenarios? Here we explain.
What should the jury decide?
Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer and confidant, assured that he gave him the green light to pay the actress $130,000 in order to silence the episode in the middle of the final stretch of the 2016 election campaign. A version that also denies the defense of the Republican candidate.
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But ultimately, it’s not up to the jury to decide whether the relationship occurred or not, or whether the payment to Daniels was legal or not.
Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen is on his way to testify in the former president’s ongoing criminal trial.
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For the prosecution, The 34 charges were made through false invoices, checks (some signed by Trump), and false records in the Trump Organization’s accounting books.
The accusation alleges electoral fraud, considering that the $130,000 that allowed information to be hidden from voters constitutes illegal campaign spending. According to John Coffee, a law professor at Columbia University, that argument will probably “baffle some jurors.”
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What are the jury’s options?
But another scenario is also possible: the 12 jurors could leave a record of disagreement, the trial would be declared a mistrial and Donald Trump could claim victory. Although this would only be temporary as another trial would be held, unless the Manhattan prosecutor’s office drops the charges.
It remains to be determined whether in such a case a new trial would take place before the November 5 elections.
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To find a defendant criminally guilty, American law requires juries to be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt. Therefore, it is enough for just one of the jurors to refuse to convict Donald Trump to give victory to the defense.
The 12 jurors and their responses in the selection process were examined with a magnifying glass. One of them cited the Truth Social network, owned by Donald Trump, among his sources of information.
But in New York, a Democratic stronghold, all swore they would be impartial to the 45th president of the United States.
Former US President Donald Trump speaks at the Libertarian Convention in Washington, DC, USA, on May 25, 2024.
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What would be the penalty?
Falsifying accounting documents is punishable by up to four years in New York state, but experts consider that sentence unlikely for someone without a criminal record.
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The judge may consider an alternative penalty such as community service or a fine. In any case, Trump will be able to appeal and thereby avoid going to jail.
Although it would cause a political earthquake, a criminal conviction, which would be the first in history for a former president of the United States, would not prevent him from running in the November 5 elections.
The effects are uncertain on the Republican electorate and on undecided voters, the latter crucial in the duel between Trump and the current Democratic president Joe Biden.
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