In a year full of democratic elections, one of the most important days has arrived: the presidential elections in the United States. Although some time ago polls showed a sort of “technical tie”, Allan Lichtman, historian and professor at American University, often called the ‘Nostradamus’ of the presidential elections already has a winner. In his own statements the expert points out that “there is no such thing as an October surprise and Kamala Harris is still sure to win.
Nothing has changed in American politics, or at least that’s what he maintains Allan Lichtmanthe political analyst with an impressive track record of predicting elections. In a recent interview with CNN, Lichtman stated that the myth of the call “October surprise” It continues to be a recurring theme in presidential campaigns. He assures that he always makes his predictions before this crucial date and that, personally, he has not felt the need to change them.
“Nothing has changed. The biggest myth in American politics is the so-called October surprise. I have always made my predictions before then and I never change them. In 2016, for example, we had the biggest October surprise: Donald Trump was recorded bragging about having sexually assaulted women, and a lot of women came out and said, ‘Yeah, he did that to me.’ Even the Republicans said he was done. “I didn’t change my prediction of a Trump victory.”Lichtman tells the North American media.
The firm predictions
Lichtman refers to the famous recording of Access Hollywoodwhich emerged in October 2016, just a month before the presidential elections of that year. In that recording, Donald Trump boasted of having sexually assaulted women, which generated a wave of testimonies against him. At the time, many believed his campaign was doomed. However, Lichtman stood by his prediction that Trump would win the election, and His prediction turned out to be correct.
This year, with elections once again around the corner, Lichtman has declared his support for Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite the closeness of the polls – where Harris and Trump are practically tied – he remains faithful to his forecasts. However, he has expressed that this campaign has been especially difficult due to the climate of hostility that surrounds him.
Threats and hatred of ‘Nostradamus’
The analyst is no stranger to controversy. “I have never experienced the kind of hate I have received this time,” Lichtman confessed, adding that he has received hate messages that have become violent and threatening. This situation has led him to take extreme precautions, such as increasing security in his home.
The growing political tension has caused Lichtman to express deep concern about American democracy. He maintains that if he is wrong in his prediction, he would not only discredit himself, but, more importantly, the country’s democracy “could be in serious danger.” His statement resonates in a global context where democracy appears to be in decline.
In the electoral sphere, surveys indicate that Harris has a slight lead over Trumpalthough the race is extremely close. In this sense, the question arises as to what the October surprise will be in this election.
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