Winter is coming. The phrase refers to the series Game of Thrones. To remember, or explain to those who haven’t seen it (spoiler-free): the known universe is divided into seven kingdoms, which coexist in an unstable truce. Winters can last for years. During the longest, evil creatures emerge from the ice and recruit the dead to destroy the living. Therefore, the arrival of winter is always a time of concern. The dead are commanded by the Night King. His image is similar to the caricature of Russian President Vladimir Putin that illustrates this report.
It’s not a fluke. Like the TV show villain, Putin has the winter to try to destroy his enemies. The difference is that, instead of recruiting the dead, the King of Russia simply turns off the gas taps that generate the electricity needed by the economies of Germany, France and other European countries. On Friday (2), Russian state-owned Gazprom – ie Putin – announced that it was suspending “indefinitely” the supply of gas to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
September has begun, and in the Northern Hemisphere, this signals the end of summer. Temperatures should start to drop soon. And just as the summer had extreme temperatures and droughts in Europe, it is quite likely that winter will be just as extreme, with cold waves and record lows in thermometers. In this scenario, a shortage of heating energy is a devastating scenario for the economy. Putin knows this very well. Hence the suspension of supply occurred shortly after the announcement of plans for oil.
“We have to save and share energy, but we have high inventories and we are not afraid of Putin’s decisions” Paolo Gentiloni, EU economics commissioner.
According to the state, the victim is to blame for the crime. The economic sanctions imposed by the United States, Canada and Europe on Russia would have prevented the supply of parts to refurbish the equipment. Gazprom’s decision came hours after the Group of Seven (G7) countries agreed on a plan to impose a price cap on Russian oil in an attempt to reduce Moscow’s oil revenues.
IMPACT European leaders have already warned that the Russian decision will provoke further retaliation. On Saturday (3), the European Union (EU) economy commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, said that the bloc’s countries are “ready to react” to the suspension. He accused the Russian president of using the energy supply as a weapon of war. “We have to save and share energy, but we have high inventories and we are not afraid of Putin’s decisions,” Gentiloni said on Saturday, a day after the power cut. “If the Russians do not respect the contracts, we are ready to react,” he said, without detailing what actions this could entail.
The consequences will be drastic. European Union countries have already agreed to voluntarily reduce gas consumption by 15% during autumn and winter. However, this is a palliative. For the past ten years, the European economic project has taken Russian gas into account. Cheap, plentiful and more sustainable for generating electricity than the old coal-fired power plants, the alternative even allowed politicians from the powerful German Green Party to pass a plan to shut down local nuclear plants. Now, this whole process will be compromised. “Europe countries will have to invest a lot in energy efficiency technologies and buy gas from other countries paying more and committing to long-term contracts,” said former Gazprom director Sergey Vakulenko, currently a consultant at the Carnegie Endowment think tank. for International Peace.
Experts believed that, since it did not involve armed action, Western retaliation for the Russian attack on Ukraine would be without consequences. Traditionally, military incursions against Moscow went awry due to the competence of the “winter general”. Weather conditions are so severe that they defeat the invaders, more so than Russian troops – Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler learned that lesson. What was not in the plan is that this time Putin uses winter as an offensive weapon, not a defensive one. According to Vakulenko, the consequences for Russia will be long-lasting. It is unlikely that Europe will once again rely on Russian energy, even in a scenario without Putin. “Confidence will be difficult to restore,” he said. And it’s just a little Game of Thrones spoiler: there’s no way to get a deal with the Night King.
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