A dozen parliamentarians announce their withdrawal and another fifty threaten to follow this path before the collapse of the formation and the Government
Political losses are inevitable before and after an electoral context, but the British Conservative Party faces an exodus of deputies two years before the legislative elections. Some twelve parliamentarians have indicated their intention to withdraw from the House of Commons and give up defending their seat in the electoral campaign, scheduled for the end of 2024. Fifty representatives of the ‘Tory’ caucuses could follow the same path and announce their Westminster’s retirement, as a result of the instability of leadership and the collapse of the Government and the party in the opinion polls after twelve years in power.
The 356 ‘Tory’ deputies have until December 5 to confirm their willingness or resignation to run in the 2024 general elections. And the casualties announced to date are not usual suspects of each electoral cycle, essentially seasoned parliamentarians with the eye on accession to lords. On the contrary, the new breed of deserters is around under forty years of age, they made their debut in the House in the new millennium and have positions of responsibility in the Government or in the Westminster committees.
This is the case of Dehenna Davison, 29, a deputy since 2019 and with a ministerial portfolio in the regional Equality department. She won the Bishop Auckland square, in County Durham, a genuine focus of economic regeneration led by private investment in Spanish art. She is part of the so-called “red wall” of districts in the north of England that reneged on Jeremy Corbyn’s labor socialism and relied on Boris Johnson’s promotional recipe to execute Brexit. Two years later, 52% of those consulted believe that it was a mistake to leave the European Union and the opinion polls predict the ruin of the ‘Tories’ in the old Labor strongholds.
«The youth and vigor of those who have announced their departure are surprising. Not a stream of regular retirements, but an exodus of some of the most promising hopes for the future of this party,” writes political analyst John Oxley. The fear of individual defeat or collective condemnation of the opposition groups spreads among politicians and commentators, as well as being reflected in the polls. Labor maintains the lead, with 48% of voting intentions, followed by the ‘Tories’ with 25% and Liberal Democrats, with 9%, according to recent data.
Resigned to “a Labor victory”
Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory treasurer and millionaire who regularly takes the pulse of public opinion, warns that he has never seen the “Tory brand in such bad shape.” Those consulted, he points out on his blog, “think it’s over” and the “majority expects a Labor victory, with or without an absolute majority.”
For the moment, the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, who is more popular than his party and only drags a negative balance of two points between the approved and failed of those consulted, is saved from the terrible perception. But the new leader faces criticism from the opposition, internal division and reproach from his allies.
The Labor leader, Keir Starmer, attacks his “weakness” before the various conservative factions and several former ministers feel that his “Government is not in control of events”, be it labor strikes, ecological protests, immigration, famine of life or the waves of refugees crossing the English Channel.
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