In Italy, the data of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss) still photograph the 1% circulation of last May, but sequencing is not done and the signals of the Delta variant come from the outbreaks present in different Regions
Rome – After becoming dominant in Great Britain, the Delta variant causes infections in the country to surge to exceed 11,000 in 24 hours: the peak of the last four months. Russia also speaks of an “extremely difficult” situation, while in the United States the Delta variant is responsible for 10% of infections and in Germany for 6%.
In Italy, the data of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss) still photograph the circulation of 1% of last May, but sequencing is not done and the signals of the Delta variant arrive from the outbreaks present in various Regions. As cases and hospitalizations continue to decline, the question arises how this variant could make its weight felt. The data of the Ministry of Health indicate that the new positive cases in 24 hours were 1,325 against the 1,400 of the previous day, detected with 200,315 tests between molecular and rapid antigenic swabs (the previous day they were 203,173); the positivity rate that emerges is therefore 0.7%, substantially stable compared to 0.6% the day before. Intensive care hospitalizations are decreasing: 27 fewer in 24 hours in the daily balance between entries and exits, for a total of 444 hospitalized. Daily admissions increased to 15, compared to 9 the previous day.
In the Covid wards there are 2,888 hospitalized, 176 fewer in 24 hours. Deaths also fell, falling from 52 to 37 in one day. Among the regions, Lombardy (232) recorded the highest daily increase, followed by Sicily (228), Lazio (119) and Campania ( 131). Alongside the new cases, the Gimbe Foundation notes, in Italy, however, tampons are also falling and tracing is lost: for the president Nino Cartabellotta “the progressive decrease in testing activity underestimates the number of new cases and documents the failure to resume contact tracing, which is fundamental in this phase of the pandemic. “Again the Foundation notes that the spread of the Delta variant is increasing in Italy, citing ISS data from May with regional differences ranging from 2 , 5% of Lombardy to 2.9 of Sardinia and 3.4% of Lazio.
More recent data is the result of the analysis of the genetic sequences of the virus deposited in the international database Gisaid: conducted by the Bioinformatics Group of the Ceinge-Advanced Biotechnology center and relating to the period May 15-June 16, the analysis indicates that the sequences of the variant Deltas deposited by Italy in a month went from 1.8% to 3.4% and which come mainly from Trentino-Alto Adige (48.3%), followed by Puglia (29.3%), Campania (5.2%), Veneto (3.4%) and Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy and Lazio (each with 1.7%). While they have the advantage of being more recent, this data is not a snapshot of the real situation. The physicist Giorgio Parisi proposes an estimate based on data from a country with a comparable organization to the Italian one, Germany, where the circulation of the Delta variant almost quadruples in a month. Therefore, starting from the ISS data of the circulation of the Delta variant of 1%, “it is reasonable to think that it is quadrupling in Italy too” and thatwe could expect it to become dominant in Italy by the end of August“It is also difficult to establish how much vaccines protect against this variant: British data suggests that vaccines protect against the disease, consequently limiting hospitalizations. Immunologist Anthony Fauci, director of the United States Institute for Infectious Diseases, is also optimistic. (Niaid): “I’m not worried about who is vaccinated. The good news – he added – is that the vaccines we use also work well against the Delta variant. And this is a very good reason for everyone to get vaccinated. ”