The Delta variant is currently spreading rapidly in Great Britain. Relaxation is on the brink. But what are the signs for Germany in terms of Delta?
Berlin – Delta variant and fourth coronavirus wave? The rate of mutations originating from India is currently still very low in Germany. The RKI reports the proportion below three percent. In other countries it looks different. Britain is currently struggling enormously with the more contagious variant. And in India, Delta let the numbers skyrocket in April and May. The hospitals couldn’t keep up. But what about Germany? Is the fourth wave coming with Delta?
Delta variant: Similar developments as in Great Britain are conceivable
The first question is: How did Delta gain the upper hand so quickly in Great Britain while the rest of Europe has been largely spared so far? Still a mystery to many experts. “I have no real explanation as to why Delta has prevailed in the UK, but nowhere else,” writes the virus researcher, for example Richard Neher on Twitter to. The low number of cases in April and easing in Great Britain would have probably contributed to this.
Similar scenes are also conceivable in Germany: “If [Delta] first and when the case numbers go up and we loosen up at the same time, then you probably expect a similar increase here, ”predicted Modellierering Priesemann im Deutschlandfunk. She has been modeling the corona processes since the beginning of the pandemic.
Delta variant: Experts nevertheless positive – “Delta variant is coming to Germany too late”
Now to a specific picture: when, how and how much? “The Indian Delta variant comes too late to Germany to ruin the summer,” says himself Lauterbach on Twitter optimistic. “Unfortunately, the cards will be reshuffled in autumn.” A high vaccination rate is the decisive factor. “We need 80+ percent for adults,” said Lauterbach. A first vaccination only offers a low level of protection with the Delta variant – especially with Astrazeneca.
Avoiding delta completely seems unrealistic. If people were careless, the number of infections could skyrocket again. “Then a fourth wave is possible,” warns Gernot Marx, President of DIVI at “Rheinische Post”. Lauterbach is also assuming a “smaller fourth wave” there, “but we will no longer need a lockdown,” predicts the epidemiologist. In addition, intensive care medicine is prepared for this scenario. To put it in the words of Priesemann at Deutschlandfunk to say: “I am very optimistic that the vaccination continues, that we have good protection at least in matters of severe courses.” (chd)
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