Delta variant of coronavirus, there is a “very high probability” that it will soon become dominant in the European Union and the European Economic Area (If it’s). This was underlined by the ECDC, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, in an update on the risks associated with the mutant reported for the first time in India. “It is expected that by the beginning of August 70% of new Sars-CoV-2 infections in the EU / See will be caused by this variant”, a percentage that will rise to “90% by the end of August”, the ECDC promises.
An estimate made on the basis of forecasting models based on the fact that, “according to the available evidence – the experts specify – the Delta variant is 40-60% more transmissible than the Alpha” or English.
Attention, therefore, recommends the ECDC, to loosen the anti-Covid measures too much during the summer. “Non-pharmaceutical interventions” against the spread of the pandemic coronavirus “should be kept at a level sufficient to contain community transmission of the Delta variant until larger shares of the population are fully vaccinated, in order to avoid a resurgence of cases with a possible increase in hospitalizations and mortality “. A scenario that would risk being similar to that of last autumn, the ECDC warning.
“In a scenario of gradual reduction of 50% of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures by September 1 – the experts specify – the incidence of Sars-CoV-2 should increase in all age groups, with higher values in those of age under 50 “.
“Any relaxation, during the summer months, of the rigor of the non-pharmaceutical measures that were in place in the European Union and the European Economic Area at the beginning of June – warns the ECDC – could lead to a rapid and significant increase in daily cases in all age groups, with an associated increase in hospitalizations and deaths, which could reach the same levels as in autumn 2020 if no additional measures are taken “.