The Indian variant is already predominant in the vast majority of communities that report sequencing
The Delta strain continues on its unstoppable path until becoming, not only the dominant strain in Spain, but practically the only one existing during this fifth wave. The latest report of ‘Variants of Interest’ of the Ministry of Health, published this Monday afternoon, reveals that the formerly known as the Indian mutation is already close to 80% of the cases sequenced in Spain, according to the graphs referring to week 28 (from July 12 to 18).
In the tables of the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES) -prepared with the reports provided by only 10 communities since the public health system still has a delay of about 15 days in the collection of sequencing- Delta has devoured to the other previous strains, to the point that the combined Alpha (British) and Beta (South African) mutation do not even reach 20% of the sequenced positives. And this, despite the fact that Alpha became predominant throughout the national territory during most of last spring.
The presence of this new Delta lineage in Spain, according to preliminary data from the CCAES, would have grown in just 7 days about 10 points, since in the previous week its prevalence was 70%.
The latest ‘Variants of Interest’ report reveals that Delta’s push is ending the geographic disparities that have been observed in recent weeks. In fact, this document certifies that in week 29 (from July 19 to 25) the Indian strain is already predominant in the vast majority of the communities that promptly inform Health of their sequencing.
Up to 96%
This predominance, in almost all cases, exceeds 80% of the positives analyzed. Of the 10 communities with updated data at least until that week 29, the Balearic Islands leads the ranking with 91.8% of Delta in its sequenced cases. They are followed by Navarra (86.2%), Cantabria (82.9%), Galicia (82.6%), Basque Country (81.7%), Madrid (81.3%), Aragon (80.8%) , The Canary Islands (80.5%) and Andalusia (78%). Only in Castilla y León did the cases of the Indian variant not exceed half of those sequenced, with a prevalence of 47.1%.
Delta’s strength is especially prominent in the Valencian Community where the data, despite being late (week 28) suggest that this new lineage would be present in 96.4% of the sequencing.
The report, as in previous editions, warns that Delta is “probably more transmissible” than other of its predecessors and that it has “a greater probability of hospitalization”, in addition to a “slight decrease in vaccine efficacy.”
Since the beginning of the appearance of this variant, Health has tried to take weight off it. In June, the director of the CCAES, Fernando Simón, even stated that the Indian mutation had a “testimonial impact” in Spain, which did not anticipate a large escalation of cases.
Just a few days later, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) warned that the Indian variant would represent 70% of infections in the European Union at the beginning of August and up to 90% at the end of that month.
The ECDC forecasts, in view of the data in today’s Health reports, have fallen short for Spain, where Delta already touched 80% of the cases in the sequencing in mid-July.
CCAES experts assume that at the present time, Delta would be present in more than 95% of the sequencing, but the delay in the delivery and processing of the PCR data capable of detecting mutations compatible with this mutation make it impossible to know The epidemiological situation in real time, since Health only has reliable ‘still photos’ of the situation from three weeks before and, even so, the CCAES does not yet have data from all the autonomies of those dates.