The 2024 US presidential and congressional elections will be like the championship final between Santa Fe and Atlético Bucaramanga at the El Campín stadium. The world will hold its breath, as did the fans until the final penalty when Aldair Quintana, Bucaramanga’s goalkeeper, sealed the victory. Biden’s withdrawal shook the Republicans’ strategic foundation. But could the scenario of George W. Bush’s first presidential election in 2000 against Al Gore be repeated, when the result was so close that it was only officially declared a month after the election?
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The likelihood that, 24 years later, we will again face prolonged uncertainty over the election results between Trump and Harris is significant. With the country almost evenly divided and voting margins extremely narrow, any irregularity or dispute in the vote count would trigger a series of litigation, recounts and court decisions that would prolong electoral uncertainty. History could repeat itself, leaving the country and the world in suspense as the next leader of the most influential democracy on the planet is determined.
With the country deeply polarized, swing states will be the scene of a deadly battle for every vote. They play a crucial role in American elections because of their history of voting for different parties in different elections. In November, states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada will be particularly relevant. The vote-by-vote battle in these states will take place in the deepest rural areas and could decide not only the presidency, but also define control of Congress.
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In Wisconsin and Michigan, Democrats will have to mobilize their urban and suburban bases while facing strong opposition in rural areas. These states, which voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020, are emblematic of the fight for the Midwestern working-class vote.
Arizona and Georgia turned blue in 2020 for the first time in decades, representing the country’s changing demographics. Young voters and growing Latino and African-American communities will be crucial in these states.
The campaign theme in 2024 will again be, it’s the economy stupid, the economy
In Pennsylvania, with its urban-rural mix, and in North Carolina, a rapidly changing southern state, it will be a close contest. The candidates’ ability to connect with a diverse voter base will be key.
Nevada, a state with strong union influence and a growing Latino population, will also be a tough contest. Democrats will have to secure a high turnout in Las Vegas to keep this state in their ranks.
The theme of the 2024 campaign will again be, it’s the economy stupid. Mind you! In particular, not taxing tips and, in general, regaining the confidence of the middle class. Let’s see: between 2020 and 2024, GDP increased by approximately 27.7 percent, unemployment decreased by 3.9 percentage points, inflation increased by 1.5; the interest rate by 5.25; the trade balance went from a deficit of 677 billion to 79 billion, public debt grew by 22 percentage points and finally consumer confidence fell by 20.7. This apparent balance of light and dark has been more dark than light for Democrats and has led a majority of middle-class voters to believe, according to polls, that Trump can better manage the post-pandemic economy.
Donald Trump at the debate in Philadelphia.
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Aside from the economy, climate change, reproductive rights, artificial intelligence, immigration identity and street crime will also be significant issues. Security and migration will have a severe impact on the vote, especially in border states such as Arizona and Texas.
It would be a commonplace to say that The election of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will have momentous consequences for both the United States and the rest of the worldif it were not for the fact that the viability of American democracy is hanging in the balance. Trump said that he would be “a dictator only on day one” if he were re-elected president.
For the world, Trump’s election will mean a return to isolationist policies, such as a radical reduction in the budget allocated to NATO, an alliance of countries in Europe and North America, while Harris would probably seek to maintain and strengthen support for Ukraine. In Latin America, specifically in Venezuela and Colombia, Harris’ policies could focus on humanitarian support and cooperation, while Trump could take a ‘Bukele-esque’ stance on security and migration issues.
Domestically, the Trump administration would continue with conservative economic policies, tax cuts for the richest and a restrictive approach to immigration, meaning build the wall. Harris, on the other hand, could implement more advanced policies in areas such as police reform, social justice and gun control. Last June, the Supreme Court decided to maintain restrictions on access to firearms for people convicted of gender violence.
Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands during the presidential debate in Philadelphia.
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In the remaining months of the campaign, artificial intelligence will play an interesting but risky role due to the power of disinformation. From data analysis to the prediction of electoral trends, this technology could be used to improve campaign strategies and personalize messages to voters, but also for dirty campaigning.
As for Congress, Democrats face the possibility of losing control of the Senate, while the House of Representatives is also not assured. Cooperation with Colombia may vary significantly depending on the election result. A Democratic-controlled Congress would likely maintain or even increase the budget for migration cooperation, while a Republican victory could produce cuts in specific areas, although maintaining a focus on the war on drugs. Without a doubt, the grave error of breaking diplomatic relations with Israel will be a factor that will play against Colombia, both in the Republican and Democratic Parties, when it comes to defining the cooperation budget with our country. Bipartisan foreign policy is our national interest in the relationship with the United States.
In conclusion, the 2024 US elections will be a litmus test for democracy, not only for the country but for the entire world. Swing states and the economy will be decisive factors. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence could change the dynamics of the campaign. It will be an unprecedented election, if Trump wins, the first president with two impeachments or congressional accusations and a criminal conviction; if Harris wins: the first woman, daughter of Indian and Jamaican immigrants.
Juan Manuel Galan
Special analysis for EL TIEMPO
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