Despite the successes in developing a corona vaccine, experts say investors are facing turbulent weeks. “Experience has shown that it is less the cold season and more the pandemic fatigue that causes the number of cases to rise again,” say the experts at the asset manager Western Asset Management. The current restrictions to contain the corona virus make sense, but they are at the expense of the economy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at brokerage house IG, points out that the approval and wide distribution of a vaccine will take some time. “That leaves investors worried about how much the second wave will spread and how bad the situation will be over the winter.” Against this background, stockbrokers are eagerly awaiting the federal and state corona summit on Wednesday. The still rapidly increasing number of infections is fueling the debate about further requirements for restaurants, schools or contact restrictions. According to information from Reuters from country circles, it is currently most likely that the closure of restaurants, for example, will be extended and new requirements imposed in schools. The retail trade should therefore remain open in the important pre-Christmas business.
BASIC MOOD POSITIVE – BREXIT DEAL ANTE PORTAS?
Overall, the mood is positive, says investment strategist Axel Botte from asset manager Ostrum. “The financial markets have obviously decided to ignore short-term risks and are already looking to the time after Corona.” The most recent Dax rally lost momentum, however. On a weekly basis, the German leading index is only heading for a meager plus of 0.6 percent. In the previous two weeks he had gained just under five and eight percent.
Investors were also encouraged by media reports on the progress made in the Brexit negotiations. According to them, after years of tug-of-war, the UK and the EU could put their future relations on a contractual basis in the new week. However, Börsianer was nervous about the interruption of the talks due to a corona case in one of the delegations. According to the Finnish European Minister Tytti Tuppurainen, the talks are at a critical stage and the time pressure is enormous. Without an agreement, the introduction of tariffs at the end of the year threatens with economic burdens for both sides.
ECONOMIC DATA AT A GLANCE – FEW COMPANY BALANCES
In terms of economic data, investors’ attention is turning to US consumer spending on Wednesday. The buying mood of consumers is considered to be the mainstay of the world’s largest economy. A few hours later, the US Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its most recent meeting. Stock traders hope that they will provide further evidence of an expansion of Fed asset purchases in December.
Overall, however, stock market operators expect little impetus from Wall Street, which will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close its doors at noon on Friday. Many US investors take this opportunity for a short vacation.
On this side of the Atlantic, the Ifo index, which reflects the mood on the German executive floors, is on the schedule on Tuesday. A comparable barometer at European level will follow on Friday. The day before, the GfK index provides information on the mood of German consumers.