On the national scene, the PT has 53% of valid votes and the president, 47%, as anticipated by PoderData
Datafolha surveys in the 3 largest electoral colleges in the country, released this Thursday (27.Oct.2022), show President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) leading in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, while the PT candidate for the Planalto Palace , Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is ahead in Minas Gerais in the 2nd round dispute.
In São Paulo, Bolsonaro has 53% of the valid votes and Lula, 47%. This count excludes the sum of null and blank votes. In Rio de Janeiro, the president scores 56% against 44% for the PT. The margin of error is 3 percentage points in the survey in São Paulo and 4 in Rio.
Lula leads in Minas with 52% of valid votes, where the president has 48%. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.
In the 1st round of the elections, Bolsonaro had 47.71% of the votes in São Paulo against 40.89% for Lula; in Rio, the president reached 51.09% and the PT, 40.69%; and in Minas, 48.29% of the votes were for the ex-president, and 43.60%, for the reelection of Bolsonaro.
TOTAL VOTES
In the scenarios considering the intentions of blank and null votes and the percentage of voters who did not know how to respond, the results are:
Sao Paulo
- Bolsonaro: 49%
- Squid: 43%
- Blanks/nulls: 6%
- Don’t know: 2%
Rio de Janeiro
- Bolsonaro: 51%
- Squid: 41%
- Blanks/nulls: 5%
- Don’t know: 3%
Minas Gerais
- Squid: 48%
- Bolsonaro: 43%
- Blanks/nulls: 5%
- Don’t know: 3%
METHODOLOGIES
In São Paulo, the survey carried out by Datafolha interviewed 1,022 people from October 25th to 27th. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo and fur Globo Group and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.
In Rio de Janeiro, the survey carried out by the Datasheet interviewed 799 people from October 25 to 27. The survey was commissioned by Folha de S. Paulo and fur Globo Group and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.
In Minas Gerais, the survey carried out by the Datasheet interviewed 1,009 people from October 25 to 27. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo and fur Globo Group and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.
The registration with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), for the 3 surveys, is BR-04208/2022.
NATIONAL
In a survey of voters across the country carried out by the Datasheet from October 25th to 27th, Lula has 53% and Bolsonaro, 47%. In the previous week, they were 52% and 48%, respectively. Considering the total votes, Lula scores 49%, Bolsonaro, 44%, whites and nulls add up to 5% and 2% are undecided.
The survey surveyed 4,592 voters from October 25 to 27, 2022. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. It cost BRL 615,874.00, paid by the Globo Group and for Folha de S. Paulo. is registered in TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-04208/2022.
POWERDATE ANTICIPATED RESULT
Search PowerDate about the race for president follows showing stability scenario, favorable to Lula, who registers 53% of valid votes. Bolsonaro had 47%. The study was conducted from October 23 to 25, 2022, with 5,000 interviews and a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points, plus or minus.
in the survey PowerDate earlier, the PT had 52% against 48% of the president.
When considering the total voters, Lula fluctuated from 48% to 49%. Without rounding, his percentage would be 48.7%. Bolsonaro kept the 44% he had in the last survey. The difference between the 2 candidates therefore fluctuated from 4 to 5 points in total votes. Those who talk about voting blank or null are 5%, the same rate as in the previous survey. The undecided dropped from 3% to 2%.
The survey was carried out by PowerDatewith resources from Power 360, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 5,000 interviews in 342 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation from October 23 to 25, 2022. The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. The TSE registration is BR-01159/2022. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text. The dissemination of results is done in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Search Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
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