Tens of thousands of people in Ukraine are affected by flooding after the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. However, the consequences for the Ukrainian counter-offensive are said to be minor.
Kiev – Flooded towns, destroyed grain, endangered drinking water supply: the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine has serious consequences for people and the environment. For the counteroffensive Ukraine However, according to a military analyst, the consequences should be rather minor.
The dam break could Ukraine war do not “push in one direction or the other in the short term,” said Niklas Masuhr, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the University of Zurich in Zurich German press agency.
There has long been speculation that the dam will be blown up
The broken dam is on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. Since the recapture of the city of Cherson by Ukrainian troops at the end of 2022, the river has formed the front line in the Cherson region of the same name. “It is rather unlikely that the Ukraine planned to cross the Dnipro as an important offensive axis,” said Masuhr. This is mainly due to the high risks of such a crossing attempt against prepared Russian troops.
About a possible blasting of the dam Russia has been speculated for months. In October, the military observers of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) of preparations for a possible Russian false flag attack. “The bursting of the dam should not have caused too much of a shock in the Ukrainian leadership,” said Masuhr. “It would be surprising if this wasn’t part of the counter-offensive calculations.”
Military Analyst: Anti-offensive forces are expected to be concentrated in other regions
According to Masuhr, the focus of the announced Ukrainian counter-offensives would be more likely to come from the north in Zaporizhia and in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The ISW reported Thursday of Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut and in the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia.
Because Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian-occupied territory in the southern sector would initially be more difficult due to the flooding, Russia could possibly withdraw troops and move them to other critical front sections, Masuhr said. The same applies in principle to Ukraine.
Dam blast: Ukraine and Russia blame each other
So far, it is unclear who is responsible for the collapse of the dam in Ukraine. Military expert Masuhr said that he, too, could not make an assessment of the current state of information. Like many international experts, Ukraine blames Russia for the disaster. Kyiv is convinced that Russia blew up the damto impede the advance of Ukrainian troops in the region. Moscow claims Ukraine destroyed the dam by shelling.
Reservoir had more than eight times the volume of Lake Chiemsee
Before the blast, the reservoir had a volume of around 18 billion cubic meters of water. This corresponds to more than eight times the volume of Lake Chiemsee. The water of the reservoir is of great importance for agriculture and drinking water supply in the region. The cooling of the nearby Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is also fed from Lake Kakhovka. (with material from dpa and AFP)
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