Two experts on Iraqi affairs expect, in their interview with “Sky News Arabia”, that the circumstances of the formation of alliances suggest that these matters will not be resolved from the first session.
The first session will elect the Speaker and his two deputies, determine the largest bloc in Parliament, in addition to opening the door for candidacy for the position of President of the Republic.
The Iraqi constitution stipulates that the speaker and his two deputies be elected within 15 days by a two-thirds majority of the members of the House of Representatives. Within 30 days to complete the formation of the new government.
Alliances Map
For weeks, talks have been taking place between the political blocs, amid ambiguity in the results of the negotiations of the Sadrist movement led by Muqtada al-Sadr, and the coordination framework that includes the majority of the Shiite bloc that lost the elections, in order for al-Sadr, the first winner in the elections, to adhere to forming a majority government, while the “framework insists” “On a consensual government like the previous Iraqi governments.
With regard to the Sunni blocs, the “Progress” alliance led by Muhammad al-Halbousi, and the “Azm” alliance led by Khamis al-Khanjar announced the formation of a Sunni alliance and integration consisting of 64 deputies.
As for the Kurdish forces, especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, they still differ over the candidate for the president of the republic; The Kurds have held this position since 2005, while the two parties agreed on a program to negotiate with the rest of the blocs on the formation of a federal government on the basis of a partnership between all components.
The closest scenario
As for the fate of the first session of Parliament, Nabil Jabbar Al-Ali, a researcher in Iraqi affairs, suggested that it be limited to the protocol procedures for taking the constitutional oath to deputies, and the case for running for the position of the Speaker and his two deputies.
Al-Ali also expects to keep the session open for days to give the Shiite forces time to complete their negotiations on the government, whether a majority or a consensus that includes all the election winners.
The Iraqi researcher, Tariq Jawhar, agrees that the first session will not accomplish all of its tasks, and it is likely that the speaker of parliament will be nominated, run for the position of President of the Republic, and form the largest bloc of the government according to political agreements within 3 or 4 months.
“Create 2003”
According to Nabil Al-Ali, the negotiations to nominate the speaker of parliament will be difficult. Because the custom since 2003 has given the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives to the Sunni component, and the two deputies, one Kurdish and the other Shiite, as a kind of participation between the sects, but these positions are linked to agreement on the rest of the higher positions, on top of which is the position of the President of the Republic and his two deputies, the Prime Minister and his two deputies, in addition to ministerial portfolios .
Tariq Jawhar expects the Kurdish forces to have a strong influence, inferring that although they did not agree on sovereign positions (such as the President of the Republic), they agreed on a paper to negotiate with the Sunni and Shiite blocs regarding demographic change in the Kurdistan region, and the disputed areas between the central government and the regional government the oil areas in the region, and its share of the general budget; This makes the Kurds one team in drawing the map of the government.
Negotiations between the Sunni and Kurdish blocs with the Shiite bloc proceeded in a balanced manner, without declaring a party siding with the Sadrist bloc or the coordinating framework. Officials from the Kurdistan Democratic Party met with the Sadrist movement, and al-Sadr discussed with al-Halbousi understandings before the parliament session.
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