In May 2020, when the Government of the Frente de Todos had not completed a semester and Alberto Fernandez occupied the center of the political stage by the brand new coronavirus pandemic, the consultancy Synopsis asked about the incidence of Cristina Kirchner in management. In part of that period, the vice president had been literally absent for a trip to Cuba to assist her daughter Florencia. Despite these variables, a 34.2% replied that the former president had maximum influence in decisions. Eight months later, with two angry letters and a public challenge from the La Plata Stadium in the middle, it is understood that the shadow of his figure among the people has grown. And a new survey from the same firm puts you record numbers.
The study that analyzes the most intriguing relationship in Argentine politics included a survey of 1,393 cases between January 8 and 10. For comparison, in addition to the May survey, another parameter for October was taken on the same topic.
Clarion days ago it published part of this comprehensive survey, which included the first electoral data of the year. And there the vice president was also present. In this case, against the background of polarization, respondents were asked how willing were they to vote in an election to “a space identified with Cristina Kirchner”, other “identified with Mauricio Macri” or as a variant, a third party “that is not identified” with neither of them. The latter won with 43.6%. Fed up with the crack.
The incidence of CFK, between desire and reality
One of the chapters of the report is dedicated to the influence of the former president “in government decisions.” How respondents see it. And to start with, an interesting comparison is made: on the one hand, it asks “how much do you think” Cristina influences; and on the other, “How would you like”. The results end up as inverted. Many people want it to have little influence, but they think it has a lot to do.
Cristina’s impact on government decisions. Synopsis differentiated desire and reality, according to respondents.
In both cases, a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 is “minimum incidence” and 5 “maximum incidence”. Regarding “how much believe” the people who influence the vice, that 34.2% in May (answer 5) grew to 54.1% this month. If 9.7% of option 4 is added, the study concludes that 63.8% see “high incidence”. The total of this item in May reached 43.5% and in October it had already grown to 57.4%.
In return, a 15.7% go now “low incidence” (8.3% opted for variant 1 and 7.4% for variant 2). In May they added 24.7% and in October, 25.6%.
After knowing these numbers, the question falls by itself. Is it logical that people perceive more influence from Cristina in the Government? One piece of information seems incontestable: every time a significant gap was opened in the Cabinet or in an important area of management, those places were occupied by leaders who respond to the vice president.
The evolution of Cristina’s incidence in the Government: this is how people saw it, according to three Synopsis surveys.
From the departure of the Lavagnista Guillermo Nielsen from the YPF leadership, Clarín reviewed the series: the deputy from Santa Cruz will enter the economist Pablo Gonzalez, by María Eugenia Bielsa (Territorial Development and Habitat) came the mayor of Avellaneda Jorge Ferraresi, by Alejandro Vanoli (head of ANSeS) elected to Fernanda raverta Sergio Lanziani already replaced him Darío Martínez, another Christian legislator. Four changes that guarantee the former president more cash and power.
Despite these advances, close to Cristina, but even leaders close to Alberto Fernández insist with the theory embodied by vice in one of his public letters: the one who commands and has the most important management springs “he is the president”.
The image and the analysis of the vice
In the same survey of Synopsis you can see the (negative) evolution of Cristina’s image. The series starts in September 2019, when the Frente de Todos had swept the PASO. Then, the former president had almost the same assessment in favor (+ 44.5%) as against (- 45.2%). Since then, however, the trend has been downward and in the last measurement of the consultancy it ended with + 27.7% and – 66.9%.
Alberto Fernandezmeanwhile, although it suffered an even steeper decline, it continues to show better balance. The President reached + 59.1% and – 19.8% in April 2020, and is now in + 30.7% and – 54.3%. At some point, as he gave in to the vice requests or endorsed his positions, his image became “christinized.”
The evolution of the image of Cristina Kirchner. They are data from the consulting firm Synopsis.
Regarding Cristina and in an electoral key, the political scientist Lucas Romero (director of Synopsis) analyzes his figure like this:
– “So much Cristina as Macri, who have been the political figures that animated the political scene in recent years, today are toxic assets. They are an asset, because they retain a considerable level of support. In these cases we are talking about almost a quarter of the electorate that would vote for spaces led by each one, of people who sympathize with them, who adhere to their figures, to their ideas. Now, that’s not enough for them to become a majority political space from the electoral point of view “.
– “This description was present in 2019 too and this is what led Cristina to resign her candidacy and propose a broader alternative that allows broadening the support base in order to transform that into a competitive and winning electoral proposal. That remains. When you present this stimulus to the people – would you be interested in voting for an alternative that is neither Macri nor Cristina? – 42% say yes “.
– “So, one wonders: if this happened in 2019 and the third way did not finally win, why did it happen? Well, there I have an explanation, which is a supply problem. People end up voting what they have in the gondola, you have no choice. “