At the highest level, the US and Europe are trying to appease the Ukraine crisis. But even direct talks with Kremlin boss Putin do not bring much movement. Can an escalation be prevented?
Washington/Moscow/Kiev – In the Ukraine conflict, a new round of diplomatic talks at the highest level has not brought a breakthrough.
US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron phoned Russian President Vladimir Putin one after the other and tried again to avert an escalation. Biden warned the Kremlin chief against an invasion of Ukraine and once again threatened serious consequences. Putin, in turn, criticized the West’s attitude towards Ukraine. The Kremlin complained that efforts to resolve the crisis were at a “dead end”. The US and Europe continue to arm themselves for a possible military escalation.
Invasion or threat?
In view of the deployment of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine, there are fears that the Kremlin is planning an invasion of the neighboring country. Moscow has vehemently denied this for weeks. It is also considered possible that the Kremlin wants to create a threatening backdrop in order to enforce its own security requirements. For example, Moscow is demanding an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and a waiver of Ukraine’s possible inclusion in the western military alliance.
A senior US official said after Biden and Putin’s phone call that the US side had put ideas on the table about security in Europe that also addressed some of Moscow’s concerns. He wasn’t more specific.
According to the state agency TASS, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said the Kremlin chief had promised to examine Biden’s statements on this. At the same time, it is already clear that Moscow’s key demands will not be met.
According to the White House, Biden emphasized in the call with Putin that an invasion would “cause great human suffering and damage Russia’s reputation”. The result would be a resolute response from the United States and its allies, with dire consequences for Moscow. The US is still ready for diplomatic talks, but “just as prepared for other scenarios”.
In the talks with Biden, Putin complained, according to the Kremlin, that Western states were not putting the necessary pressure on Ukraine to fulfill its obligations. Ushakov said US warnings of a Russian attack on Ukraine were “hysteria”. Nevertheless, the conversation was “fairly balanced and factual”. US government circles said the dynamics of the past few weeks had not fundamentally changed as a result of the phone call.
US media: military action possible
The US government has been warning of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine for weeks with increasing drama. Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had stated that the United States considered a Russian invasion possible before the end of the Winter Olympics in China on February 20 – in the coming week. The New York Times wrote that the United States had intelligence that Russia was discussing next Wednesday (February 16) as a target date for military action. But it could also be that this date is part of a disinformation campaign by Russia.
Moscow rejected the American warnings on all channels. In a phone call to Macron, Putin himself spoke of “provocative speculation,” the Kremlin said. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the US of a “propaganda campaign” with “provocative goals”. The Russian ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, complained of “alarmism” without any evidence.
Even the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj was irritated by the alarming statements from Washington. “If you or anyone else has additional information about a 100 percent invasion on the 16th (February), please provide us with that information,” he said. Kiev is aware that there are risks. Nevertheless, there are too many reports in public space about a major war between Russia and Ukraine. “The enemy’s best friend is panic in our country,” said Zelenskyy.
Warning for foreigners and OSCE staff
In Europe, however, there are growing concerns about an escalation. Several states, including Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, called on their citizens to leave Ukraine. Great Britain, Australia and the USA, among others, had previously done so – Australia also temporarily closed its embassy in the Ukrainian capital Kiev. The US State Department also announced that it would reduce staff at its embassy in Kiev “to an absolute minimum”. In addition, the US military is withdrawing from Ukraine because of forces that were there for training purposes. Other states are also reducing their embassy presence in Ukraine.
The observer mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is also affected by the US call to leave Ukraine. The corresponding travel advice for American citizens from last week also applies to the US staff of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, said a spokesman for the US State Department. The OSCE did not initially answer the question of whether the mission in the crisis area in Donbass would continue. Hundreds of international OSCE observers have been stationed in Ukraine since March 2014. They are supposed to monitor the ceasefire agreed between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian soldiers, especially in eastern Ukraine.
In addition to Biden and Macron’s phone calls with Putin, diplomatic efforts continued at other levels as well. According to Élysée circles, Macron was still on the phone with Selenskyj and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), who wants to travel to Moscow for a meeting with Putin on Tuesday. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also spoke to Zelenskyy on the phone. Scholz, in turn, wants to meet Selenskyj this Monday in Kiev for a personal meeting. dpa
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