SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Credit Suisse raised its estimate for inflation measured by the IPCA in 2021 to 6.9%, from 6.7% earlier, as a result of a new increase in fuel prices by Petrobras and expectations of an increase in fuel prices. food prices due to “bad” weather conditions in the country.
The 6.9% rate is even further away from the inflation target (3.75%) and from the ceiling of the tolerance band (5.25%).
On Monday, Petrobras announced an increase in the average price of diesel by 3.7% and that of gasoline by 6.3%. In the year, Petrobras diesel rose about 40%, while gasoline advanced 46%.
“Despite the readjustment in fuel prices, we estimate that domestic prices are still 11% below the international parity, which represents a risk to our inflation forecast at the end of the year,” said Solange Srour and Lucas Vilela in a report.
At the same time, recent drought and cold weather in several states across the country have generated downward revisions in crop forecasts for some crops (such as corn) and loss findings for others (such as coffee).
Credit Suisse maintained a 4.5% inflation forecast for the IPCA for 2022, a rate that already implies non-compliance with next year’s target (3.50%), whose ceiling of the tolerance interval is at 5.00%.
According to Focus, a survey released by the Central Bank with financial market estimates, the 2021 IPCA should be at 6.07%, falling to 3.77% in 2022.
(By José de Castro)
+ Learn about the effectiveness of each vaccine against Covid-19