The Dutch economy will grow by almost 4 percent this year, followed by an increase of 3.2 percent in 2022. The labor market will remain tight in the coming years: unemployment will rise slightly from 3.4 to 3 next year after the support measures have ended. .6 percent. With those forecasts comes the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) Friday in the so-called Macro Economic Outlook.
The planning office is an important advisor to the government. Normally, the estimate of the CPB is the starting point for negotiations in the coalition for next year on the budget. But because the cabinet has a caretaker status, it is unclear whether that will also be the case this year. In the meantime, the VVD and D66 have been inventorying the possibilities for a new coalition to be formed for months; the CDA and a combination of GroenLinks and the PvdA or the ChristenUnie are potential cabinet partners.
The CPB speaks of a ‘resilient recovery of the Dutch economy’ and assumes that society will remain open; the evolution of the pandemic represents the greatest uncertainty for the researchers for economic forecasts. If the government does impose new restrictions, this will ‘immediately affect’ economic developments, according to the CPB.
According to the researchers, the budget deficit will increase to 5.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 and will decrease to 1.8 percent the following year due to more tax revenues. The researchers also foresee a 0.8 percent increase in purchasing power as a result of the tax cut. It will decrease to 0.0 percent in 2022.