The pressure on the country’s health system, caused by the spread of the Ômicron variant, is in the lines of health posts, in the lack of anti-flu medicines in pharmacies, in the scarcity of tests for the detection of covid-19 in private laboratories and, in January, after a long damming of data, in the surveys of the Ministry of Health. The explosion of daily cases, which already exceed 200 thousand, increases the number of hospitalizations. The moving average of deaths has increased by 121% in two weeks.
Specialists warn that the arrival and evolution of Ômicron, throughout December, were not registered by the Ministry of Health. Some use the expression “blind flight” to illustrate the situation of public managers and private hospitals. When the folder’s systems were hacked on December 10, the number of Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths was at its lowest level for the year. This was before the end-of-year celebrations, the flu outbreak in several cities, and the advance of the Omicron.
In January, the ministry reported that four of its platforms had been re-established in December and the instability would not have interfered with the surveillance of cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. This is the opposite of what the researchers say. “We had a major epidemiological blackout. Do these stabilized numbers, according to the Federal Government, involve retrospective data? To reach the record moving average of 100,000, there must have been an important variation in January”, says Domingos Alves, a professor at USP’s Ribeirão Preto School of Medicine.
The expert refers to the moving average of 100,000 daily diagnoses recorded on Wednesday. It was the first time that number had been reached since the beginning of the pandemic. Compared to the average of 14 days ago, the variation was +487%, according to data from the consortium of press vehicles formed by EstadãoG1, The Globe, Extra, Leaf and UOL in partnership with 27 state health departments.
Even without official data, the advance of the disease is blatant. With the flu outbreak mixed with the growth of covid-19 cases, people with flu symptoms fill health units at the beginning of the year. As a result, sales of anti-flu drugs in pharmacies soared.
The recovery of data from the Ministry of Health did not solve the problem of underreporting of cases, in the opinion of Julio Croda, a researcher at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation and president of the Brazilian Society of Tropical Medicine. For the specialist, the question is recurrent. “Since October, e-Sus has not adequately reported antigen tests. We still don’t know the real impact of Ômicron. The numbers are still underestimated. Most of the results are from the private network.”
Another obstacle is the lack of detection tests for covid-19. In several parts of Brazil, public managers and private laboratories are finding it difficult to obtain more tests.
The number of cases at the beginning of the year is impressive in comparison with previous periods. In the first 19 days of the year alone, the number of cases of covid (1,135,488) is equivalent to 30% of the total number of confirmed cases throughout the second half of 2021 (3,726,209).
Impact on deaths
The death curve started to rise recently due to the time between infection, hospitalization, death, confirmation of the cause and, finally, registration. On December 31, the moving average registered 97 deaths per day. On the 19th, this same metric registered 215 deaths daily – an increase of 121% in just over two weeks. In this way, the moving average of victims has now reached a level above what it was on the eve of the hacker attack, when the average indicated 183 deaths from the disease each day. Since December 3, 2021, the country has not exceeded 200 deaths per day.
The information is from the newspaper. The State of São Paulo.
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