Covid, Gimbe: “In one week 54 thousand new cases, up 32.3%”
There pandemic accelerates its run, overwhelming also Italy: in the last week the number of new cases And hospitalizations. According to independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation, compared to last week, all indicators increased: i dead rose to 402, up by 21.8%, i admissions to intensive care grow by 14%, i hospitalized with symptoms of 15.5%, in home isolation 23.5%, while i new cases of Covid they exceed 54 thousand, up by 32.3%.
“For the fourth consecutive week – declares Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe – an increase in new weekly cases is confirmed nationally (+ 32.3%), as documented by the seven-day moving average, which tripled in one month: from 2,456 on 15 October to 7,767 on 16 November “.
For the past four weeks the increase in viral circulation is well documented by the increase in both the positive / people tested ratio (from 3.6% to 12.7%), and the positive / molecular swabs ratio (from 2.4% to 5.8%) and positive / rapid antigenic swabs (from 0.07% to 0.21%).
In all regions except Calabria and Umbria show a percentage increase in new cases, with variations ranging from 0.7% of the Puglia Region to 180% of the Aosta Valley. In 84 Provinces there is an incidence equal to or greater than 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants: in Campania, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Marche, Umbria and Veneto all the Provinces reach or exceed this threshold. In 7 Provinces there are over 150 cases per 100,000 inhabitants: Trieste (638), Bolzano (402), Gorizia (369), La Spezia (248), Forlì-Cesena (219), Padua (179) and Vicenza (152).
“Faced with these numbers – he concludes Cartabellotta – it is unacceptable that the administrators have not introduced local restrictions, albeit unpopular, accepting the risk that the spread of the infection drags the entire Region into the yellow zone “.
Covid, Gimbe: surge in ordinary and intensive care hospitalizations
But not only new cases, even on the hospital front there is a further one increase in the number of beds occupied by Covid patients: according to the weekly monitoring compared to the previous week, the increase is 15.5% in medical area and 14.3% in intensive care.
In absolute terms, the number of Covid patients in the medical area increased from 2,371 of 16 October to 3,970 of November 16 (+ 67.4%) and that in intensive care from 338 on 25 October to 481 on 16 November (+ 42.3%). At the national level, the employment rate is 7% in the medical area and 5% in the critical area, with significant regional differences: no region exceeds the 15% threshold for the medical area, while Friuli-Venezia Giulia (14%) and Marche (10.1%) exceed that of 10% for the critical area.
“Daily admissions to intensive care – he points out Marco Mosti, Gimbe Chief Operating Officer – continue to increase: the 7-day moving average went from 34 entries / day the previous week to 38 “.
Only Friuli-Venezia Giulia and the autonomous province of Bolzano are very close to the yellow zone considering that, in addition to the weekly incidence> 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, both hospital occupancy rates are higher or close to the thresholds of 15% in the medical area and 10% in intensive care. “We must take into account – underlines Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe – that the current system for assigning colors to the Regions was developed when there was no data on the decline in vaccination coverage, nor on the need for the third dose.
With these rules, during the winter months of increased viral circulation, in Regions with lower vaccination coverage and / or late in administering the third dose there is a risk of overloading hospitals without changing color; also because the regions have the possibility of increasing the number of beds available, taking them away from other patients, or discharging Covid patients to private facilities “.
Covid, Gimba launches the vaccination obligation and the reduction of the validity of the Green Pass to 6 months
“In the current scenario characterized by the progressive increase in viral circulation and the reduction in vaccination efficacy that requires the booster dose, there are two political decisions that can minimize the risk of restrictive measures “: is the proposal launched by Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation in light of the latest weekly monitoring.
“The first – he explains – is reduce the validity of the green pass to 6 months issued following vaccination, in line with scientific evidence on the duration of vaccination protection and with the indications for the booster dose. The second is to introduce the vaccination obligation both for the primary cycle and for the booster dose, at least for all categories of workers in contact with the public.
Instead, the “Super Green Pass“on the Austrian model, in fact a” surrogate “for the vaccination obligation: excluding the swab from the procedures for issuing the green certification – while identifying the essential activities for which this option would remain valid – only risks increasing social tensions without any guarantee of increasing vaccination coverage and adherence to the third dose “, concludes Cartabellotta.
Covid vaccine, Gimbe: “350 thousand third doses are needed per day until the end of the year”
According to Gimbe’s weekly monitoring yesterday 3,269,468 third doses were administered, of which 534,029 additional doses and 2,735,439 booster doses, with a 7-day moving average of nearly 120,000 administrations. The national vaccination coverage rate for additional doses is 59.6% with clear regional differences: from 3.5% in the Aosta Valley to 100% in Campania, Liguria, Molise, Piedmont, the Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany and Umbria. The national coverage with booster dose is 53.3%, again with considerable differences between Regions: from 31.8% in Calabria to 91.9% in Molise.
“These percentages – he points out Marco Mosti, Operations Director of Gimbe – are however overestimated by the failure to update the official audience for the booster dose, which is still on November 2nd “.
In fact, according to the ministerial indications the people called to receive the booster dose by the end of 2021 are: 11.96 million over 60 who have completed the cycle with any vaccine by 4 July; 757,000 under 60 who received the J&J vaccine by 4 July; 6.14 million from 1 December people aged 40 to 59 who have completed the vaccination course with Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca by July 4th.
Considering that 2.74 million booster doses and 291 thousand additional doses have already been administered to over 60s, 15.83 million third doses should be administered by 31 December, on average over 350,000 administrations per day.
“In addition to the participation of the population in the administration of third doses – he comments Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe – and to the organizational and communication challenges that the Regions are called to face, the stocks of mRNA vaccines are of concern, today equal to less than 50% of the doses to be administered by the end of the year, together with the fact that the plan for the next supplies remains unknown, now at the stake for 5 weeks “.
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