Press
Two of the most important NATO countries are facing elections that will determine their direction. Could Marine Le Pen in France and Donald Trump in the USA reshape the alliance?
A major supporter of Ukraine could be shaken: France will finally elect a new parliament on Sunday (7 July) – and a possible victory of the Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen or the left-wing alliance of the “Popular Front” is likely to plunge the country into political turmoil. Not only, but also with regard to Ukraine policy.
Ronja Kempin, an expert on France and European security policy, does not expect a “major rupture” in Paris’s policy in the short term if Le Pen wins the election, as she told our editorial team. Instead, she expects domestic political conflicts – and possible damage to France’s image as a reliable partner. Such a scenario would probably suit Russia.
If Le Pen wins, France’s image as a reliable NATO and EU partner could suffer
Should Emmanuel Macron If he loses his majority in parliament, Kempin said, there would “in any case be an impact on French security and defense policy.” Both political camps, the RN and the “Popular Front,” are representatives of a different course than Macron.
Le Pen’s RN has publicly committed to continuing aid to Ukraine – but has also set limits. “One on the delivery of long-range missiles, a second on the deployment of ground troops,” says Kempin. What is explosive is that France has already delivered long-range weapons, including the “SCALP” cruise missile, which has already brought Ukraine military successes. The current government has already promised more supplies.
If there is an open dispute between Macron and the new government, this could lead to uncertainty. Macron does have the prerogative in security and defense policy, says Kempin – but parliament has the right, for example, to decide after four weeks on the deployment of French soldiers. Macron has already brought this up with a view to a training mission. Kempin suspects that a parliament dominated by the RN could try to “embarrass” Macron. In fact, Le Pen has already made hints to this effect.
Such a situation could call into question France’s reliability as a NATO partner and as the strongest military power in the EU. “That would be a sign of unreliability,” warns Kempin.
Elections in France and the USA: “It is conceivable that an agreement will be reached with Trump on NATO restructuring”
A Le Pen majority or presidency could have long-term effects on NATO. Kempin does not believe that France will leave NATO in the short term under the RN. Le Pen will probably try “not to scare off partners, not to scare off the world and not to scare off the population,” she says.
However, there could be turbulent times ahead. Due to a hard line on both sides: The RN will probably want to present “successes” – and Macron will try to “show up” the right in order to block Le Pen’s path to the presidency in 2027. “This is a situation that the country has never had before – and in which both sides will try to get the maximum capital for themselves,” said Kempin.
A Le Pen majority or even presidency could also have long-term consequences for NATO, Kempin suggests in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA The RN will put France’s sovereignty in the foreground, says Kempin. It will be less about being a reliable partner, but rather about pursuing national interests. It is also conceivable that “we will work with Donald Trump agreed at some point to restructure NATO or something similar,” says the expert. At the same time, she puts things into perspective with regard to the uncertain outcome of the US election: “But that is very premature – because that is the next unknown.” (fn)
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