Correspondent ‘s analysis Why has Germany not done more for Ukraine, even if it could?

Berlin

This moments have been awaited. As the speaker breaks, the cameras start clicking and the heads turn. He arrives.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has invited foreign correspondents to the lavish Chancellery office in Berlin. It was built in the 1990s as a chamber of power in a united Germany, a 36-meter-high palace that rises between the River Spree and the historic Reichstag building in the heart of Berlin.

There are largely another hundred journalists from all over the world, as there is huge interest in Scholz. Germany’s actions this spring have aroused more concern and anger than confidence. It is Scholz who has a lot of guard.

Germany is the most populous country in the EU, the world’s fourth largest economy and the world’s fourth largest arms exporter.

Yet it has not taken the lead in supporting Russia, which has been attacked by Russia, and in trying to get Russia to end the war. Why? This would be interesting to ask now that we have reached Scholz.

The visit is on the same day as it took place in Berlin shocking accident. The man was driving a group of schoolchildren. Their teacher died instantly, and many teenagers from far away from home on a class trip to Berlin were seriously injured.

Reporters have rushed from one mood to another, and the rules will be told first. At the event, only two questions can be asked for public citation, after which the cameras are taken out and talked about as a “background”.

Scholz sits in his chair sparingly and begins to speak as usual in a quiet voice. No words of greeting or compliments to those present, no condolences to the victims of the recent accident and their relatives.

His first words are: “The war of aggression launched by Russia”. He speaks like a paper including German From Zeitenwende that is, the change of era. For he means German decision increase its defense budget by EUR 100 billion.

The decision really is a turning point. In Germany, its own armed forces have been saved for decades. Germany is not properly prepared to defend itself, let alone its neighbors, it has not believed in the possibility of war in Europe.

Scholz says he is happy with the political agreement to increase the budget, but it does not seem so. She looks either tired or bored. Fatigue would not be a miracle. Times are tough for political leaders.

He doesn’t even try to be particularly present or interesting. He speaks very meanderingly – and quietly.

He says Germany is one of the most important arms exporters to Ukraine. The day before in Lithuania, he has said the same thing. Just before this event, however, Der Spiegel reported that for a long time, German arms deliveries had not arrived in Ukraine. The situation is strange.

German journalist Wolfgang Münchau wrote in Spectator in April that Scholz was coming Putin the most valuable ally. American military expert Edward Luttwak Has said, that Germany could have prevented the whole war by giving advance notice of the freezing of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

The first statement can be understood as a figurative statement, but it is literally not true. There is no certainty about the latter perception.

Ambassador of Ukraine to Berlin, Andri Melnyk, is probably one of the fiercest and most creative slanders of Scholz. Along with many of his other Scholz statements, he called the Chancellor “injured liver sausage” in the spring.

It was preceded by an episode in which the German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier planned to visit Kiev, but Ukraine stated that he is not welcome. Steinmeier is known for his close relations with Russia, as are many other demarche politicians of his generation. He has admitted that Germany has made misjudgments in its policy towards Russia – not everyone else has.

Scholz’s Ukraine would have received him, but because of Steinmeier’s treatment, he has not agreed to visit Kiev. For Scholz, it’s about institutions, but it looks like an injury.

Opportunity first, a Ukrainian journalist asks Scholz why Germany is not exporting German-made Marder tanks to Ukraine. The arms company Rheinmetall announced in May that they could be delivered within three weeks.

For almost five minutes, Scholz discusses how Germany has supplied and continues to supply a large number of weapons to Ukraine, including ammunition and various weapon systems, the names and characteristics of which he mentions precisely. He just says nothing about Marders.

He then says, “The answer to your question is that we are keeping pace with our friends and allies.”

This is always his speech. The reporter again asks if there is any special reason not to export Western-made tanks to Ukraine, fear of provocation from Russia, for example.

Scholz is again responding by talking about allies: it is important that they move at the same pace. There will be no answer to the question.

The non-public part also continues to be vague and meandering.

The opportunity leaves a disappointed and numb feeling on the correspondent card. Scholz’s way of doing things seems intentional. It’s as if he’s spending the time available from irrelevance to debating so he doesn’t have to say anything.

Perhaps phone call To Thorsten Benner brings clarity to the situation. He is a German researcher, director of the Institute of Global Public Policy in Berlin.

Benner immediately has a clear idea of ​​why Scholz says Germany is a major arms supplier to Ukraine, even though the promised weapons have arrived in Ukraine slower than expected or not at all yet. It is an intentional exaggeration.

“He is annoyed by the exaggerated criticism that Germany is doing nothing for Ukraine. That’s why he himself exaggerates, ”Benner says.

Indeed! As surprising as it is, Scholz has many times in the past seemed to react to criticism emotionally.

“Because I’m not doing what you want, I’m leading,” Scholz said in April to “the girls and the boys,” the MPs in the governing parties who are demanding a more active line from him.

The statement was clumsy and arrogant.

Of course, Germany has done a lot for Ukraine. Before the Russian invasion, since the conquest of Crimea, Germany has provided nearly € 2 billion in financial support to Ukraine.

Since the start of the war, Germany has exported anti-tank weapons, tens of thousands of hand grenades, hundreds of explosives and dozens of machine guns to Ukraine. Germany has also exported protective equipment, including 20,000 military helmets. At the beginning of the war, the 5,000 helmets exported by Germany were a common point of ridicule, but Ukraine itself had requested a helmet.

Germany has promised Ukraine an air defense system, but it will take months to deliver. The deliveries of the promised tanks will also last, as the Ukrainian troops will first be trained to use them.

Thousands of German troops are stationed in NATO’s eastern bloc. On Tuesday, Scholz promised to send more. It is therefore not the case that Germany has just been sitting there all week to discuss the situation.

Criticism is still harsh, and Germany has gone into the hedgehog defense. Scholz is particularly heavily criticized in Poland and other former Eastern bloc NATO countries, Ukrainians, and Britain and the United States.

Bennerin according to the review there is a taste of repayment. For decades, Germany has been a tough supporter of economic discipline, a sad giant. Now it can be beaten. The barking of Germany has become a European public interest.

According to Benner, the review has lost all proportions. There are clearly deliberate misunderstandings. For example, the fact that Scholz would drive a ceasefire in Ukraine, which could be done by Ukraine surrendering.

Wolfgang Münchau, already mentioned, has spread the speculation that Putin would have some form of blackmail that would slow down Scholz’s movements. There is also outright disinformation against Germany.

Benner believes sharing false information is part of today’s communications climate and needs to be lived with.

“Germany doesn’t like to whine about it like toddlers, but improves what they do,” he says.

A man of Scholz level should not be provoked. He thought Benner could visit Kiev. He could show more empathy for the victims of the war.

“But that’s not his style.”

After all, he didn’t say anything about the victims of the Berlin accident until tonight on Twitter. Scholz is emotionally involved, but the emotion seems to be irritability.

Benner says Germany could and should have taken the lead in arms deliveries to Ukraine if it wanted to. He cannot judge whether Scholz intends to change his line yet.

Are there ideological reasons behind it? The government also provides practical explanations for the slow pace of arms exports, but many suspect that the relationship with Russia is one of the real reasons.

“It’s about political restraint,” Benner says. If there was a will, it could work more effectively.

Know be typical of Germany that the change of era means money. Does the military budget change anything in the minds of the Germans?

There is one thing that feels very foreign to many in Germany.

“We should be grateful to Ukraine. After all, we as NATO benefit from Ukraine defending itself so strongly, ”says Benner.

If Russia had progressed through Ukraine and gained power quickly after the attack, would it have continued on the Polish border? Russia has been violently threatening Poland throughout the spring. To the west of Poland is Germany.

According to Benner, Germany should already be realizing that the war in Ukraine is really about the security of the whole of Europe. That would be right Zeitenwende.

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