Abroad|Correspondent analysis
The traditional “strategic vagueness” is starting to get really vague, garnering praise and reproach.
Beijing
On Monday was seen as a remake of a world-confusing show.
President of the United States on a visit to Tokyo Joe Biden said when asked that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if China invaded Taiwan.
This is at odds with the doctrine of “strategic vagueness” that has long prevailed in the United States. It says the United States will not say whether it would arrive alongside Taiwan if China attacked.
Read more: Would the United States defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion? The answer has been deliberately vague for over 40 years, and a clearer line could know the war
Biden has made similar statements in the past, deviating from the traditional line.
And, as before, Biden administration officials rushed on Monday to explain that the old U.S. position has not changed. The doctrine of strategic ambiguity thus remains. Biden himself also explained his own statements on Tuesday, saying there are no changes to Taiwan’s policies.
Confusing.
Would be so that the president of the United States has become a senile who simply does not learn the enormous substance of world politics, right?
Hardly.
It must be Biden’s conscious communication to the world. In his statements, he warns China – that the United States would indeed intend to support Taiwan militarily if necessary.
At the same time, the administration assures that the old doctrine of “vagueness” has not changed. If the United States were to declare it in line with Biden’s speech, China would be angry.
In China’s view, Taiwan is part of China, although Taiwan is virtually independent. China has said it wants Taiwan to eventually unite with China, albeit by force and war. This is one of the most sensitive issues in Chinese politics.
It may be that the situation in Ukraine made Biden “slip” again. The United States is not at war with the help of Ukraine, and this has often been interpreted as meaning that the United States does not want to be too annoyed by nuclear-weapon Russia.
Biden may have wanted to say to China that there would not be the same rules for Taiwan: the United States could join the war even if China has nuclear weapons.
Read more: What has China learned from the war in Ukraine? Researcher: If your own army has a great reputation, you shouldn’t go to waste insecure wars
Ollaan thus, alongside the doctrine of vagueness obtained, there is also a situation of vagueness: is the U.S. position vague in aiding Taiwan in its invasion of China or not?
Estimates of Biden’s actions are twofold: It was good and cunning communication with China about the dangers of invading Taiwan. It was a dangerous communication that could make China so suspicious that it would eventually attack Taiwan.
Of course, China immediately responded angrily to Biden’s statement.
On Tuesday, the Quad countries, the United States, Japan, India and Australia, will hold a summit in Tokyo. That, too, annoys China. China often calls the loose assembly called the “NATO NATO,” directed against China, a security dialogue.
The co-operation that has been on the shelf for a long time has become very active in recent years. The reason is largely China’s perceived threat.
This time, the Quad will probably announce that it will take joint action against illegal fishing in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In practice, they will then act against China.
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