According to Mika Rämet, the comparison of vaccination coverage and mortality is not very useful. It would be more sensible for him to compare, for example, the situation in Italy at the beginning of a pandemic, when no one had yet received the vaccine.
In Ireland and in Hungary, the incidence of coronary infections has developed in a rather parallel direction recently. Yet there have been almost eight times as many corona deaths in Hungary in recent weeks as a proportion of the population.
One explanation for this situation may be vaccination coverage: in Hungary, about 60% of the population has received two vaccines, in Ireland more than 75%.
HS assembled graphics data on vaccination coverage in countries and the incidence of deaths and infections.
The graphics show broad lines: currently, countries with high vaccination coverage have fewer coronary deaths than countries with lower vaccination coverage.
The graphics are a still image of the current situation. The infection situation may have been different a few weeks ago, when the fatal infections shown in the graphics were obtained.
This is the case, for example, in Latvia. At the turn of the month, the incidence in Latvia was close to 1,800, now it is over 700. This is likely to explain Latvia’s high mortality rates.
THL: n leading expert Mia Kontion according to the graphics illustrate the general trend well.
“It also shows that if there are a lot of infections, there will be more deaths in countries with high vaccination coverage. Not much, yes, vaccinations curb mortality. ”
“A combination with low vaccination coverage and high infection rates is definitely the worst of all,” says Kontio.
Individual the situation of the country cannot be explained with certainty by the graphics. In the United States, for example, there have now been relatively few coronary deaths, although the country has relatively low vaccination coverage.
The low number of deaths may be explained by the relatively low number of infections in the United States recently.
Kontio points out that mortality is affected, for example, by the type of health care in the country, whether it is easy to go to the hospital and what the general state of health of the population is. These may explain differences in coronary mortality, for example, in countries with approximately the same vaccination coverage and infection rates.
Among other things The European Commission has shared similar graphics on its Twitter account, which has been redistributed a lot. The graphics use vaccination data and deaths from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for the first two weeks of November.
Suddenly, the same observation can be made about the graphics: high vaccination coverage reduces deaths. In Ireland, for example, coronary deaths are relatively low, while in Bulgaria the situation is low with low vaccination coverage.
The ECDC graphics do not take into account the impact of the disease situation on deaths. When there is a lot of virus on the move, more people become seriously ill and are at risk of dying from the disease.
The ECDC graph shows the proportion of vaccinated adults in the adult population, and the HS graph shows the total population.
Tampereen Director of the University Vaccine Research Center Mika Rämetin according to which the comparison of vaccination coverage and corona deaths as such is not particularly fruitful. He believes the current number of coronary patients and deaths should be compared to a situation where none of them would have been vaccinated.
“It should really be compared to the situation in Italy in the spring of 2020, for example. It is a more relevant benchmark,” says Rämet.
“It could show how much vaccinations have prevented hospitalizations and deaths.”
Last week, the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) reported that those who had not been vaccinated had a 19-fold risk of undergoing specialist care and a 33-fold risk of undergoing intensive care in August-October.
Rämet says that comparing deaths and vaccination coverage alone cannot interpret whether a coronary vaccine works. Its efficacy has been unquestionably demonstrated in clinical trials, but coronary mortality is also affected by the extent of the epidemic.
“If there is no disease, there will be no cases, even with zero vaccination coverage and a poorly functioning vaccine.”
“Now we have contacts in Finland, and we are not locked up as before. That’s why the virus circulates more and goes through the population. ”
Rämet thinks it would be important now to try to curb the workload of hospital care and use the time to promote vaccinations.
Rising the need for hospital care predicts new deaths. Because coronary patients over the age of 60 are most often in need of hospitalization, their vaccination coverage also has the greatest impact on mortality.
Expanding the vaccination coverage of the entire population, on the other hand, has an indirect effect in curbing the epidemic.
In Finland, THL recommends third doses of coronary vaccine for anyone over 60 years of age. However, according to Mia Kontio, it would be more important than the third dose in Finland to have the first and second doses of the vaccine given, especially to those over 50 years of age.
“The proportion of people in need of hospital treatment who have received a second vaccine is very small. The effect of the third dose of vaccination to prevent hospitalization is really small compared to the first and second doses. ”
Also chief physician of THL To Hanna Nohy said To HS on Wednesday, the burden on hospitals does not depend on vaccinations in children or third doses, but on unvaccinated adults.
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