D.he seven-day incidence of the coronavirus has been rising for almost three weeks. According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) this Monday morning, it is now 14.3. The previous day the value was 13.8 and at the most recent low on July 6th it was 4.9.
The health authorities in Germany recently reported 958 new corona infections to the RKI within one day. A week ago, the value for Germany was 546 infections. The incidence has so far been the basis for many corona restrictions in the pandemic, for example as part of the federal emergency brake that expired at the end of June. In the future, other values such as hospital admissions are to be taken more into account.
According to the new information, three deaths were recorded across Germany within 24 hours. It had been a death a week ago. The number of people who died with or with a proven infection with the Sars-CoV-2 virus rose to 91,527.
The RKI has counted 3,756,856 detected infections with Sars-CoV-2 since the beginning of the pandemic. The actual total number is likely to be significantly higher since many infections are not detected. The RKI stated the number of those who had recovered at 3,646,100.
Expert: Herd immunity unattainable
In view of the current situation, the Saarbrücken pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr sees no chance of achieving herd immunity in Germany. There are far too few vaccinations and vaccination readiness, said the expert for corona forecasts of the dpa. For herd immunity and thus a successful containment of the pandemic, 85 percent of Germans would have to be vaccinated or recovered – i.e. immune. Instead, according to his calculations, Lehr sees a new wave rolling towards Germany. If growth continues as it is now, then an incidence of 150 can be expected at the end of September, says Lehr, who runs a Covid-19 simulation project together with other researchers.
Vaccinations could slow things down, but the number of vaccinations is currently “really massive”. The low-threshold access to vaccination offers will now be “very important”. In addition, one also has to “go into groups” that have not yet been vaccinated – like the 12 to 15 year olds. According to Lehr, between 60 and 70 percent of all new infections affect 15 to 35-year-olds.
But even if the vaccination pace picked up again, that would not help much at the moment because of the delay – i.e. until the vaccinations were fully effective. “That is why we should see above all that we do not relax all measures,” said the expert. The basic rules and the mask requirement should be retained and under no circumstances should all measures be overboard, as in Great Britain. “Hospital occupancy has already risen dramatically there. It will be drastic there. “
“Don’t overslept again this summer”
In Germany, Lehr expects a renewed increase in hospital occupancy with Covid patients. Certainly there is a shift towards patients “who do not die quite so quickly”. But the fact remains that they are likely to have a difficult course. And there will also be more deaths among the younger patients.
“This is not a deluge that is coming over us and we cannot change anything,” says Lehr. “We are in control of what happens. That’s why we have to make sure that we don’t oversleep this summer like we did last summer. ”He said he was in favor of sticking to the seven-day incidence as a value for assessing the corona situation. The factor of hospitalization occurs with a delay to the cases.
Gastronomy: More incentives for vaccinated people
The German Hotel and Restaurant Association (Dehoga) calls on the federal government to create positive incentives for those who have been vaccinated in order to increase the vaccination rate. “This means that a visit to a restaurant as well as a hotel stay must in any case continue to be allowed for people who have been vaccinated twice, even in autumn and winter”, says Dehoga managing director, Ingrid Hartges, the newspapers of the Funke media group. In addition to incidences, new decision criteria are also required for assessing the infection situation. “In the 17th month of the pandemic and a vaccination quota of currently 50 percent, it is urgently necessary to define other parameters.” Other factors such as the vaccination quota, the development of the disease course, the degree of hospitalization and the death rate would have to be taken into account.