Will Germany succeed in the fight against the third corona wave with the federal emergency brake? An expert is skeptical – and suggests a different strategy.
Berlin – In Germany, the government wants the federal emergency brake to come. Chancellor Angela Merkel and her cabinet want to break the third wave with nationwide uniform corona regulations. For many observers, it feels as if Germany is still moving from lockdown to lockdown a good year after the start of the pandemic. So far, the successes have mostly only been short-lived.
But what would be the appropriate measures to escape the never-ending cycle of lockdown, loosening and renewed lockdown? An expert who also works with the Robert Koch Institute has an idea. The physicist Dirk Brockmann is part of the No-Covid initiative and has developed a model that should lead out of the lockdown loop.
Corona strategy: University Professor Brockmann calls for a clear goal after lockdown
Brockmann calls for a short, tough lockdown in order to significantly reduce the incidences. “Our goal is zero risk incidence, i.e. no cases that cannot be traced back,” Brockmann explained in an interview with the mirror. “If a low incidence of 30 has been reached in a federal state, there will also be many municipalities that no longer have any cases, which must then be viewed in a differentiated manner.”
If it were possible to bring the incidence below 30 in individual regions, one could “reopen it with well thought-out concepts,” said the professor at Berlin’s Humboldt University. “Once the number of cases is down, the pandemic can be controlled much better,” explained Brockmann. Then the population could “live almost normally again. But for that we need a hard lockdown first. “
Brockmann sharply criticized the political approach. It presents itself aimlessly, “like a big steamer on the ocean: you lazily circumnavigate the upcoming thunderstorms without heading for land.” And this is exactly where the scientist sees the basic problem. There is one thing above all missing in the government’s fight against the corona pandemic: a goal.
Corona strategy of the federal government: “Operating instructions for successful permanent lockdown.”
Brockmann was already bothered by the term “hard lockdown”. There is also a lack of clear language on the part of the responsible politicians: “We have been living with measures for weeks, what is a hard lockdown supposed to mean? That should be communicated much better, ”demanded Brockmann.
Here, too, a clear goal could motivate the population to accept the privations of a hard lockdown in the short term. In order to then benefit in the medium to long term and, above all, permanently. For this, “the government must name a realistic perspective”, “for which it is worthwhile to limit yourself for a certain period of time. For example, a very low incidence with which one can open in a controlled manner without the number of cases directly skyrocketing again. And she has to explain how to get there. “
Meanwhile, Brockmann can do little with the current strategy of the decision-makers against the coronavirus. What bothers him first and foremost is the focus on the incidence value 100. This is set “far too high”. “If we now always loosen at an incidence just under 100, we have to close again shortly afterwards,” warned Brockmann. So there is no escape from the back and forth of lockdown and relaxation. “This is an instruction manual for a successful permanent lockdown.” (kh)
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