Corona numbers in Germany give little hope – but the incidence among old people remains drastic

Update from January 21st, 8:41 pm: The Reproduction number in Germany something has risen again. Like from the current status report of the Robert Koch Institute from Thursday evening, the four-day R is 0.84 (previous day: 0.79) and the seven-day R 0.93 (previous day: 0.87). Since the Reproduction number but so that it is still below 1, the infection rate levels off further.

In the first rudiments, this is also noticeable in the older population group. After the RKI on Wednesday for the population 80+ Seven-day incidence reported 268 cases per 100,000 residents (see first report), there are now 259.

Despite this slight tendency towards improvement, this is a reminder RKI, the danger of Coronavirus not to underestimate. Because “a high number of transmissions can still be observed in the population in Germany”. The institute therefore rates “the overall health risk in Germany as very high”.

Corona in Germany: Numbers give quiet hope – but of all people, the incidence remains drastic

First report from January 21st: Berlin – Politicians have taken measures to contain the Coronavirus recently extended again. Germany will be in the middle of February at least Lockdown*. Virus mutations such as these are of particular concern Great Britainwhich, according to initial scientific findings, do not necessarily lead to worse disease courses, but are probably more contagious *.

Corona in Germany: concern about virus mutation – situation in Ireland and Portugal precarious

That is why keeping the number of cases low is currently the top priority for the federal government, like the Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel* emphasized again on Thursday morning (January 21). If the numbers are low, then the virus “doesn’t think so much” about the mutation, explained the CDU politician *. The simple calculation: the more spread the virus is, the more likely it will be Mutations.

In this context, the Chancellor repeatedly refers to the threatening situation in Irelandwhere the Virus mutation continues to spread and 1,191 cases per 100,000 inhabitants have been registered in the last 14 days **. The situation is currently even more tense Portugal (14-day incidence of 1320) where 20 percent of new infections are due to one mutation go back. The corona cases in the ten-million-inhabitant country recently reached a record high of 14,600. The unstable health system threatens to collapse.

Ireland and Portugal apply to the Federal Republic as a warning example. That is why the Chancellor never tires of pointing out the virus mutation. However, there is currently hope in Germany.

Corona in Germany: the number of infections remains high – but the decline is clearly evident

In terms of the number of infections, there have recently been positive developments. With from Robert Koch Institute* reported 20,398 new infections, the situation is still precarious, but there are signs of a clear decline. Compared to the previous week, almost 19 percent fewer cases were reported Seven-day incidence is declining for the tenth day in a row, reaching 119.0, the lowest level since November 1st. So Germany is making progress on the way out of the crisis.

This can also be seen when looking at the respective federal states. With Thuringia and Brandenburg only two federal states rank above the 200 mark. The situation is currently most relaxed in Hamburg, Bremen, Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony. Also in Baden-Württemberg the incidence is back in double digits after weeks.

Corona in Germany: R value well below 1 – “that shows that the effort is worth it”

The development of the Reproduction number. * If the so-called R value is below 1 for a longer period of time, the infection rate levels off. Currently that is Four-day r at 0.79 and the 7-day R at 0.87. The decline in the number of infections shows loudly Merkel“That the tough cuts that people in Germany have had to take for weeks are beginning to pay off. And it basically shows that the effort is worth it. ”

Despite all reasons for cautious optimism, the Chancellor warned on Thursday that the Corona crisis to underestimate. If you don’t act now, there is a risk of a third, possibly even more violent wave of pandemics. But: “We can still prevent that,” said Merkel clear: “There is still some time to prevent the danger that lies in this mutated virus.”

Corona in Germany: incidence of 268 – threatening situation in the elderly

While the current figures are definitely positive, even if they are of course only a snapshot, other developments are of concern. The virus is currently rampant, particularly among the older population belonging to the risk group.

Reported this on Wednesday evening RKI for people between 60 and 79 years old Incidence of 95 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, i.e. less than the national average. For the population group 80+, however, the situation looks much more dramatic. Here the incidence is currently at a high 268. This number is also due to the increase in cases in old people’s and nursing homes, as in the RKI situation report from Wednesday is called. Know that too Merkelwho can understand the frustration of the population about the restrictions, because “it is a difficult time”. As before, there is nothing to gloss over. (as) *Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital network

** Source: World Health Organization, as of January 20, 10 a.m .: The WHO gives the incidence over a period of two weeks, which is why there are sometimes significant differences with the local information, which is usually viewed within a week can. Germany ranks 26th in a European comparison. You can read the full list here recall.

List of rubric lists: © Michael Kappeler / dpa