The omicron wave could overshadow all previous corona case numbers. A mathematician has done the math and defined the limits of what is possible.
Mittweida – Omikron is on the advance, there is great concern about another corona wave. Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) is sounding the alarm over worrying data from Great Britain. It is almost certain that the highly contagious virus variant will soon spread across the board. But when and how hard does the “Omikron Wall” hit Germany?
The term “Omikron wall” comes from Christian Endt. He is a data journalist at time. His model calculation suggests that Omikron could be the dominant Corona variant by Christmas – and that the incidence may scratch the 1000 mark by the end of the year.
Omikron model calculation shows worst case: 700,000 new corona infections per day
Kristan Schneider, professor at the Faculty of Applied Computer and Biosciences at the Mittweida University of Applied Sciences in Saxony, has also done Omikron calculations. “If we get careless, we will surely have several hundred thousand new infections every day with Omikron,” he tells ZDF.
Schneider speaks of up to 700,000 new infections per day in the worst-case scenario – “slightly within the scope of what is possible if the measures remain as they are now,” says the mathematician. For comparison: the previous peak value of corona cases (without the likely high number of unreported cases) is around 75,000 new infections per day and dates from the end of November.
Corona: How much more contagious is the Omicron variant really?
Since it is currently unclear how much more contagious the Omikron variant really is compared to Delta, Schneider has highlighted five scenarios in his model calculation: Omikron is 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 percent more infectious. He considers the peak values of 50 to 60 percent to be realistic.
According to Schneider’s calculations, Omikron accounts for the majority of new infections in Germany on January 21, 2022 at the earliest (if it is 60 percent more contagious), and no later than February 14 (if it is 20 percent more contagious. The mathematician locates the peak of the Omikron wave in the period from early to mid-March – regardless of how much more contagious the variant is.
Omikron: the infection rate of the new Corona variant is crucial
However, the great unknown has massive effects on the number of new infections every day. According to Schneider’s calculations, almost 700,000 corona cases per day are possible if Omikron is 60 percent more contagious than Delta. If it were only 20 percent, the daily reinfections would not exceed 45,000 if the current protective measures were retained.
Omikron model calculation: No prognosis, but an important tool for politicians
Schneider’s model calculation is not a prognosis, because it takes into account assumptions made beforehand – for example, that 90 percent of people with a second vaccination also receive a booster vaccination and that the refreshment protects up to 50 percent against infection and transmission of the Omikron variant.
In addition, the calculation does not take into account any new political measures such as contact restrictions and the associated changes in people’s behavior. “The simulations assume that the current contact restrictions will remain,” Schneider explains to the ZDF and adds: “Any loosening would have a devastating effect.” Nevertheless, such model calculations help to predict the further development of the pandemic and derive the necessary protective measures. Baden-Württemberg’s Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann called for quick advice from the experts at the weekend.
Omikron: According to the model calculation, there is a risk of corona collapse even with slight gradients
Schneider’s calculations do not allow any direct conclusions to be drawn about the future situation in the intensive care units, as the mathematician emphasizes. Because: There is still too little reliable data on the severity of the Omikron disease progression. But even if the new virus variant really has a lighter course, Schneider warns of a collapse and massive consequences for public life in Germany due to the high number of cases.
If hundreds of thousands should really become infected every day and have to go into isolation, the companies, public institutions or hospitals would simply run out of staff, says the professor ZDF. Schneider advocates more protective measures – in politics too, the demands are getting louder and louder shortly before the festival. It would be sensible to cancel mass events and close theaters, cinemas, or large restaurants, as super-spreader events can easily occur here. “This can have devastating consequences in the initial phase of the omicron distribution,” says Schneider. (yo)
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