The corona situation in Germany is getting worse. While there are discussions about easing, the RKI now forecast a bleak picture for Easter.
Munich – The corona incidence in Germany has increased again. The RKI reported a 7-day incidence of 76.1 on Saturday. For comparison: the previous day the incidence was 72.4. Nevertheless, the value in Germany is significantly lower compared to other countries and also compared to values in December – i.e. at the height of the second wave. However, according to RKI estimates, this could change soon.
Corona in Germany: RKI with bitter prognosis – British mutant on the rise
RKI boss Wieler warned in the past few days that the third wave of the corona pandemic had already started in Germany. This is exactly what the Robert Koch Institute makes clear in his current forecast.
The virus mutations, which “may lead to higher infectivity with faster spread or to limited effectiveness of a component of the immune response,” continue to be particularly “worrying” for the RKI.
The so-called British mutant B.1.1.7 in particular is therefore on the rise in Germany. It has now been proven in all federal states. In the past week, according to the RKI, almost 55 percent of the positive samples examined were due to the British variant. Three weeks earlier, the proportion was 22 percent.
RKI with gloomy Easter prognosis: incidence increases exponentially
The RKI also shows this spread of the variant in its report on Friday. The isolated incidence of variant B.1.1.7 has risen exponentially since calendar week two. This incidence doubled about every twelve days. In contrast, the incidences of all other variants would decrease. These trends are superimposed, “which overall led to the only slowly increasing 7-day incidence of the last 4 weeks (calendar week 06 to 09),” according to the RKI.
Now, however, this trend is accelerating: From calendar week 10 (current week), the RKI now expects that “a significantly steeper increase (in incidence, editor’s note) will become apparent”. And this trend will continue according to the prognosis: As early as calendar week 14 (April 5 to April 11), the RKI expects the number of cases to be above the level of Christmas. Easter Sunday falls on April 4th in 2021.
For the week starting April 12, the RKI considers a 7-day incidence of around 350 to be possible – with the institute specifying the range from 220 to 500, depending on the course. According to mirror-Calculation, this would mean almost 41,000 new corona infections per day.
There are two things to consider with this forecast: On the one hand, the gloomy scenario does not yet include any lockdown loosening. It is just a mathematical calculation based on the previous numbers. In addition, the previous corona measures for virus mutation B.1.1.7 do not seem to be able to stop, as the variant has been spreading exponentially since the beginning of January. (rjs)
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