14/12/2023 – 20:35
The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), held in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, brought global progress, but also left something to be desired for not having established stricter goals to tackle the climate crisis. This is the analysis of organizations linked to the environment that attended the conference, which took place between November 30th and December 13th.
After a marathon of negotiations, the COP28 approved a historic agreement to promote the energy transition, reducing the use of fossil fuels. It is the first time in the history of United Nations climate conferences that a final working document reflects the fossil fuel transition for alternative energy sources.
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For the SOS Mata Atlântica Foundation, which participated in the Conference, the event brought important advances, but still falls short of what is necessary to guarantee a safe climate future.
“The elimination of fossil fuels was a central theme. The final text, signed by the almost 200 countries that participate in the UN Climate Framework Convention, is not yet firm enough to guarantee this within the necessary deadline, but it places the issue at the center of the international agenda. We have not yet reached the due level of ambition, but we have already drawn up a road map to talk about this”, said the Foundation's executive director, Luís Fernando Guedes Pinto, in a statement.
Greenpeace Brazil spokesperson, Luiza Lima, agrees. For her, it would be necessary for the text to talk about the actual elimination of fossil fuels. However, the final decision at COP28 brings an important advance, which is the mention of the need to make an energy transition. “This is relevant because it puts fossil fuels at the center of the debate, something that had never happened in the previous 27 climate conferences,” she says.
Luiza Lima highlights, however, that the final document is still not enough to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C), which is the target recommended by scientists.
For director of Forests and Public Policies at BVRio and member of the Strategic Group of the Brazil Coalition, Beto Mesquista, COP28 exceeded expectations. As it was held in a country whose economy depends on oil, it was not expected that there would be advances, even if timid, in relation to fossil fuels. “This shows us that, often, the formal bodies of the UN, the conferences of the parties are certainly slower than is necessary, than what the urgency of climate change requires, but they can, little by little, make progress , so it’s not worth giving up on this path.”
The executive director of the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (Ipam), André Guimarães, published a report on the COP on social media. According to him, precisely because it was held in an oil-producing country, the conference was important because it attracted other oil-producing countries, in addition to oil, coal and energy companies for the discussion.
“Unfortunately, despite a lot of discussion, we still have a certain uncertainty about the route, the path to reducing fossil fuels”, he says and adds: “on the negative side, we have not reached conclusions about the route to reducing the use of fossil fuels, but on the other hand, we brought countries, companies and sectors interested in this debate into the discussion, I think this was a win”.
Climate Fund
Another advance cited by experts was the creation of Climate Fund for Loss and Damage. According to the executive director of the SOS Mata Atlântica Foundation, resources are still limited, but it is a milestone for countries that are already suffering or will suffer from climate change.
The creation of the fund to recover the damage caused by the climate crisis was announced on the first day of COP28, after 30 years of demands to create a financial reserve to compensate the nations most vulnerable to climate change. The creation of this mechanism was determined at the last COP, in Egypt, in 2022.
The Fund received voluntary donations from countries such as Japan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Germany totaling US$420 million. It will be hosted at the World Bank and will be administered by a council made up of 26 members, 12 from developed countries and 14 from poor or emerging countries.
Brazilian protagonism
Regarding Brazilian participation in the conference, according to Guedes Pinto, from Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, COP28 marked the country's return to a prominent position in global socio-environmental discussions. “Brazil has shown that it can influence this process and, more than that, it has proposals to present, such as the innovative mechanism for conserving forests across the planet suggested by the federal government,” he said.
Lima, from Greenpeace Brazil, also says that, to fulfill what the country has been advocating, to be an example, measures will be necessary so that the defined goals have an impact internally. “We cannot imagine that it is possible for us to also make a fair transition from fossil fuels expanding oil exploration in sensitive areas such as the Amazon. These are incongruous things, they are ambivalences, ambiguities that the government will not be able to avoid discussing”, she argues.
Mesquita, from the Brazilian Coalition Strategic Group, reinforces that the country that wants to take the lead and lead by example, as Brazil has shown it wants, will have to make decisions especially in relation to the use of fossil fuels. According to him, the country has already shown results on issues such as reduction of deforestationbut now it will also need to advance in other areas.
“It needs to make a decision on which path to take, whether it wants to follow the fossil fuel path, be one of the last countries to abandon it, whether it will continue investing billions in new areas of oil exploration or will take advantage of the competitive advantages it has, as in lime energy, biofuel”, he highlights.
Fulfillment of goals
Based on what was agreed, countries will have until 2025 to present new national plans and comply with the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDCs are prepared according to the realities of each location. Brazil's updated NDC in 2023 establishes a 48% reduction in emissions by 2025, and 53% by 2030, compared to 2005.
“Countries will have to do much more complete homework, much more sectorized and, for Brazil, this will mean not only the need to have a very clear and transparent process for building this, but to attract investment so that this become reality. We have a tradition in Brazil of setting good goals and then failing to implement them. You cannot follow this tradition in any way”, argues the president of the Talanoa Institute, Natalie Unterstell.
In 2024, COP 29 will be held in Azerbaijan. In 2025, Brazil will host the COP30, which will be held in Belém.
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