Genoa – There are the provinces of Imperia and La Spezia in the list of 18 “special supervised” territories for the spread of Covid. He does know the Gimbe Foundation in its periodic analysis of the infection.
“The independent monitoring of the Foundation – reads the document released today, November 25 – detects in the week 17-23 November 2021, compared to the previous one, an increase in new cases (69,060 vs 54,370) and deaths (437 vs 402) nationwide. Currently positive cases are also increasing (154,510 vs 123,396), people in home isolation (149,353 vs 118,945), hospitalizations with symptoms (4,597 vs 3,970) and intensive care (560 vs 481) “. In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:
Deaths: 437 (+ 8.7%), of which 25 referring to previous periods
Intensive care: +79 (+ 16.4%)
Hospitalized with symptoms: +627 (+ 15.8%)
Home isolation: +30,408 (+ 25.6%)
New cases: 69.060 (+ 27%)
Currently positive cases: +31.114 (+ 25.2%)
“For the fifth consecutive week – he declares Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Foundation – new weekly cases increased at national level (+ 27%) with a 7-day moving average more than quadrupled: from 2,456 on 15 October to 9,866 on 23 November “(figure 4). The increase in viral circulation is well documented by the increase in both the positive / people tested ratio (from 3.6% to 14.7%), and the positive / molecular swab ratio (from 2.4% to 6.3%). ) and positive / rapid antigenic swabs (0.07% to 0.27%) “.
In all the Regions except Basilicata there is a percentage increase in new cases, with variations ranging from 1.3% in the Tuscany Region to 124.3% in the Valle D’Aosta. In 92 Provinces there is an incidence equal to or greater than 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants: in Abruzzo, Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Lombardy, Marche, Piedmont and Veneto all provinces exceed this threshold.
There are 18 provinces over 150 cases per 100,000 inhabitants: Trieste (674), Gorizia (492), Bolzano (442), Forlì-Cesena (311), Padua (274), Rimini (249), Aosta (248), Ravenna (214), Treviso (213), Venice (213 ), Vicenza (200), Pordenone (186), Udine (183), Fermo (172), Ascoli Piceno (166), Belluno (162), Spice (162) and Imperia (160). “When the incidence exceeds 150 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants – comments the president – local administrators must promptly verify the existence of outbreaks and decide on any targeted restrictions to stem the spread of the infection, as already done by the Autonomous Province of Bolzano “.
Deaths also increased: 437 in the last 7 days (of which 25 referred to previous periods), with an average of 62 per day compared to 57 in the previous week.
“On the hospital front – says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Foundation – there is a further increase in the number of beds occupied by patients Covid: compared to the previous week + 15.8% in the medical area and + 16.4% in intensive care “. In absolute terms, the number of patients in the medical area went from 2,371 on 16 October to 4,597 on 23 November 2021 (+ 93.9%) and that in intensive care from 338 on 25 October to 560 on 23 November 2021 (+65 , 7%).
At the national level, as of November 23, the employment rate was 8% in the medical area and 6% in the critical area, with significant regional differences: for the medical area, the 15% threshold is exceeded by the Autonomous Province of Bolzano (16 %) and Friuli-Venezia Giulia (18%) which with 14% exceeds even that of 10% for the critical area (Figure 6). “Daily admissions to intensive care – points out Marco Mosti, Operations Director of the Gimbe Foundation – continue to increase: the 7-day moving average went from 38 admissions / day the previous week to 48”.
As of November 24 (update 06.11) 101,693,473 doses were delivered and the stocks of mRNA vaccines amounted to 8 million. After 5 weeks of hiatus, deliveries resumed with 1.6 million doses of Moderna vaccine: according to what Commissioner Figliuolo declared on November 19, a further 7 million doses of mRNA vaccines are expected by the end of the year (4 million of Pfizer and 3 of Moderna), “to which another 2.5 million doses of the centralized reserve can be added”.
As of November 24 (update 06.11), 79.2% of the population (no. 46,928.704) received at least one dose of vaccine (+34.657 compared to the previous week) and 76.7% (no.445.435.706) has completed the vaccination course (figure 8). The number of administrations increased slightly in the last week (1,380,796), with a 7-day moving average of 207,593 administrations / day.
Vaccines: new vaccinated
In the last 2 weeks, the number of newly vaccinated people has stabilized at around 127,000, a number which, albeit small, demonstrates that there is still the possibility of convincing the undecided (figure 9). Of the more than 7 million unvaccinated people, however, two groups that are worrying “move” too slowly: on the one hand 2.62 million over 50 at high risk of serious illness and hospitalization, on the other 1.2 million in the 12-19 which negatively affect the safety of schools (Figure 10).
The latest data from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità show the reduction in vaccination efficacy 6 months after the completion of the cycle, confirming the need for a booster dose. In detail:
– the effectiveness on diagnosis drops on average from 74.6% for those vaccinated within 6 months to 46.8% for those vaccinated for more than 6 months;
– the efficacy on severe disease falls on average from 91.8% for those vaccinated within 6 months to 82.1% for those vaccinated for more than 6 months.
Coverage with at least one dose of vaccine is highly variable in the different age groups (from 96.9% of the over 80s to 75.2% of the 12-19 group) as well as coverage with third doses, which in the over 80s they reached 44.9%, while they are still 13.3% in the 70-79 age group and 10.1% in the 60-69 age group.
“In order to contain the fourth wave in our country – concludes Cartabellotta – on the vaccine front, the need to reach the largest possible number of people not yet vaccinated is unquestionable, and to accelerate with the administration of third doses, especially in the over 60 and the frail. Without going into the merits of the “composition” of the package of new measures, it is good to keep in mind the lessons learned in 20 months of the pandemic. First of all, just as the relaxation of restrictive measures must be gradual, their re-introduction must be timely, to neutralize the time advantage, of at least 15 days, enjoyed by the virus. Secondly, it is appropriate that the measures enter into force in all Regions because the employment thresholds in the medical area and in intensive care to get to the orange, or even red zone, are so high that they risk paralyze hospital care for non-Covid patients and increase mortality for those with Covid ”.
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