Consequences and keys of the Russia-Ukraine war conflict

Mexico.- The war between Russia and Ukraine it has a historical context that today faces not only the European region, but the whole world. Specialists in international relations and international law exposed the keys and consequences of this problemhighlighting that more democratizing opening is required and, in parallel, promote demilitarization.

In addition, they pointed out that the consequences do not suit anyone, such as the increase in the prices of gas, fertilizers, grains and a worrying humanitarian crisis.

On February 24, Russia launched a “special military operation” with ground, air and sea forces on Ukrainian territory after months of tensions between the two countries, drawing international condemnation.

Consequences

Iliana Rodríguez, a professor at Tec de Monterrey in Mexico City and a specialist in international law, pointed out that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has already is having medium and long range impactsas it is inflation in the cost of fertilizers that Russia exports.

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“For being the breadbasket of the world with the wheat, corn and soybeans that it controls together with Ukraine,” he said.

The teacher indicated that has increased and will increase even more the cost of gas for Europe, the same region to which Russia supplies this product. In addition, he considered that the inflation that comes with the increase in fossil fuels, especially gas and gasoline, It impacts a very long value chain.

“When the cost, decrease or scarcity of one of these elements of the productive value chain is altered, it has long-term impacts worldwide,” he said.

Another consequence, according to Rodríguez, is that commercialization by land, sea and air is affected by the war. He stated that sea ​​routes and navigation areas begin to be restricted and we are already seeing the exclusion of airspace in Europe for flights from Russia, and many countries are imitating this unilateral sanction of exclusion from airspace.

humanitarian crisis

Iliana Rodríguez mentioned that the long-term consequences are economic and of course in human casualties in a conflict that nobody wants, but that is already beginning to leave a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

The professor pointed out that in the long term we will see the degradation of Ukraine, that it will become a failed state after this conflict, and that it will have important social movements.

“This event greatly fractures the population inside. 80 percent of the population of Ukraine is practically Ukrainian, against 20 percent of Russian origin, so the discrimination that will occur against minorities will be exacerbated, “he said.
Iliana commented that, in international security issues, Ukraine has to become a neutral entity where it does not accept being influenced or part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

keys

For her part, Beata Wojna, international relations specialist and academic at Tecnológico de Monterrey, indicated that Russia is currently taking advantage of the weakness of the administration of US President Joe Biden to strengthen itself in Europe, “Russia’s movements are a response to the US policy of rapprochement and support for Ukraine”, he opined.

Beata noted that this is the beginning of a new chapter in Putin’s politics, who seeks to guarantee the security of the Russian Federation after his departure from power and added that it is a symbolic sign, 30 years after the fall of the USSR, that Russia is still present and strong on the international board.

In this sense, he stressed that in recent years Putin has maintained the policy of repositioning Russia in the European and global context and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is part of this logic.

The specialist explained that the conflict arose as a result of the fundamental disagreement between the Russian security policy. This consists of maintaining close political and security relations with neighboring countries that were once part of the Soviet Union and today are considered by Russia as their security cushion. In 2004, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, former Soviet Republics, joined the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Given this, Russian leader Vladimir Putin established the Customs Union, made up of countries from the former Soviet bloc, led by Russia. Beata Wojna pointed out that it is also due to Ukraine’s aspirations to get closer to Western Europe and become independent from the influence that Russia has exerted after the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

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“Russia argues that NATO expansions have unbalanced the security system in Europe and demands to stop them, something that NATO will not be able to accept in writing, since expansion is one of the principles established in the founding treaty of the Alliance”, concluded.