“The index of expectations on the Italian economy recorded a drop from +0.6 at the beginning of the year to -34.8 in April”
Confindustria sees black on economic recovery: in April the average gas price natural was 698% higher than before the outbreak of the pandemic; that of North Sea oil was 56% more. In this scenario, the Centro Studi emphasizes, the high prices slow down the production activity “along all the supply chains”.
According to the center, the decline in Italian industrial production in March it was -2.0%, after the statistical rebound in February (+ 4.0%) linked to the fall in December and (-1%) and January (-3.4%). In the first quarter of 2022, therefore, the Csc estimates a decrease in industrial production of -1.6% compared to the 4th quarter of 2021. And in addition, in April it expects a further decline in production of 2.5% which brings the change acquired for the second quarter to -2.5%, compromising the dynamics of the Italian GDP in the second quarter, after the decline in the first.
The orders in volume decrease in March of -0.6% on February, in April of -0.4%, according to the Csc in the rapid survey on industrial production. The increase in commodity prices, in particular that of natural gas (+ 698% on average in April compared to pre-Covid) and Brent (+ 56%), “are still high, holding back production activity along all supply chains “.
“The surveys on entrepreneurial sentiment and the downsized dynamics of orders and business expectations do not suggest significant improvements in the short term” estimates the Csc. After the positive figure in February, mainly due to a statistical base effect, the factors that hindered Italian production activity even before the war (increases in raw material prices, scarcity of materials) continue to affect, which in the 1st quarter were confirmed very relevant. The perceived insufficiency of implants and materials has significantly worsened.
To these phenomena has been added one noticeable decrease in the judgments and expectations on orders (both domestic and foreign, the latter in the area of contraction after five consecutive months of expansion) and in the judgments and expectations on the production levels of manufacturing companies, whose value had not reached such low levels since March last year.
More, “the index of expectations on the Italian economya recorded a drop from +0.6 at the beginning of the year to -34.8 in April, a value comparable to that of December 2020. The worsening of the economic policy uncertainty index, which for Italy rose to 139 , 1 point in March and then settling on a slightly lower value in April (129.2 points, + 28.5% compared to the 4th quarter of 2021), increases the risks of a further weakening “, concludes the Institute.
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