by Roberto Samora
SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to grow 21.3% in 2022/23, to a record 152.35 million tonnes, with a recovery in yields after the drought in the South last cycle and an increase in area planted, said the National Supply Company (Conab) this Thursday.
The state-owned company’s first survey for the season pointed to production above the average expectation of 12 analysts and institutions, according to a Reuters survey released on Thursday, which indicated 150.62 million tonnes.
The area planted with soybeans in Brazil in 2022/23 was estimated by Conab at 42.89 million hectares, up 3.4% compared to 2021/22, a historic maximum for the planting of the oilseed in the largest producer and global exporter of the commodity. .
“The sowing of the grain takes place inside the window in the main producing states and reaches 4.6% of the area, with the highest rate recorded in Paraná (9%), followed by Mato Grosso (8.9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul. South (6%)”, said Conab, highlighting the good start with favorable rains.
According to analysts, the advance in area compared to 21/22 is motivated by attractive soybean prices and positive margins, even with high costs in the face of higher expenses with fertilizers.
More profitable than other crops, soy has gained space over rice in Rio Grande do Sul, first-crop corn in Paraná, beans and pastures, said the manager of Crop Monitoring at Conab, Rafael Fogaça.
“Cattle ranchers are allocating part of their properties to soy crops. If they planted 5% of the total area, this year they are increasing (the total for crops) and confining animals”, said Fogaça, explaining the numbers in an internet broadcast.
He also mentioned that in agricultural frontier states there is expansion.
According to Conab data, Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean producer, should increase the area by around 5%, or 550,000 hectares.
On the agricultural frontier of Matopiba, Piauí will have the highest percentage increase (4.1%), while Pará is approaching 1 million hectares of soybeans, with growth of 11.7% from one harvest to the next.
EXPORTS
Conab projects soybean exports at historic 95.87 million tons, which would represent an increase of 22.5% in relation to the projected for 21/22, when the offer was lower due to the crop failure.
“This increase is motivated by a greater Brazilian supply of the grain in the 2022/23 harvest, combined with an increase in world demand and a forecast of a reduction in exports from the United States”, said the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management at Conab, Allan Silveira, in a note.
The soybean crop is expected to account for almost half of the total production of grains and oilseeds in Brazil, estimated by Conab at 312.4 million tons, up 15.3% versus the previous cycle.
Corn will account for another large part of total production, with Conab’s estimate pointing to 126.9 million tons of the cereal, an increase of 12.5% compared to 21/22, with the record based on the largest volumes of the second harvest, planted after the soybean harvest.
The total area planted with corn in Brazil in 2022/23 was projected at 22.4 million hectares, up 3.8% compared to 2021/22, with Conab seeing a 5.4% increase in the area planted with corn second crop , but a drop of 1.5% in the first.
First crop corn is losing area to soybeans in states like Paraná, noted the company, citing greater profitability for the oilseed.
For cotton, the expectation is that 1.63 million hectares will be destined for the cultivation of the fiber, growth of 1.9% of the area sown in the 2022/23 crop, resulting in a production of the lint of 2.92 million tons. (+14.7%), with a recovery in productivity.
For winter crops, crops are in the harvest phase or advanced stage of development, said Conab. The main product sown, wheat is already harvested in 22.4% of the planted area in the country, with expectations of a new record, of 9.4 million tons, a volume 22% greater than in the previous harvest.
In the case of rice, the projection is for a reduction of 5% in the planted area, with the country’s total production remaining practically stable, at 10.7 million tons.
Conab’s first projections for the 2022/23 crop point to an increase in ending stocks of corn (20%), cotton (17%), beans (31%) and soybeans (45%) compared to the 2021/22 crop, added the state-owned company. in report.
With regard to domestic consumption, the survey points to stability in the consumption of rice and beans, a slight increase in the demand for cotton (2%) and an increase in the consumption of corn and soybeans, of 6.2% and 5% respectively.
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