Today the extraordinary summit: joint projects for armaments are underway. Towards yes to energy Eurobonds, but disagreements remain on sanctions
Palace of Versailles. And it will be a Europe determined to also take giant steps towards energy autonomy. Emmanuel Macron had prepared the European summit scheduled between today and tomorrow to define the post-pandemic economic recovery strategy. Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has upset plans. It will be a summit in exceptional times, of war, which will see the Union take two fundamental decisions: the twenty-seven heads of state and government will undertake to “significantly increase defense spending”, with investments in “joint projects and purchases” , and to “gradually eliminate dependence on imports of gas, oil and coal from Russia”. Two historical steps that could mark the second Hamiltonian moment of the Union, two years after the turning point that led to the first maxi-issue of common debt of 800 billion.
However, the summit framed by the gardens of Versailles will not be all roses. In the room where the leaders meet, there will be at least three elephants to contend with. Three issues that will be discussed without taking concrete decisions because the divisions are still too strong. The first, the most ambitious one, is at the top of Emmanuel Macron’s thoughts. To finance the interventions relating to the energy crisis and defense, the French president, in agreement with Mario Draghi, will push for the establishment of a new common debt instrument. The two talked about it at length yesterday morning in a preparatory phone call for the summit. Commission services have begun studying options, although the EU executive wants to receive a formal mandate from governments first. There are those who imagine a sort of Recovery-bis, those who think of a technically different tool. It will be discussed tomorrow in the session which will also be attended by Christine Lagarde (president of the European Central Bank) and Paschal Donohoe, number one of the Eurogroup, the body that brings together the finance ministers of the single currency. The Netherlands and Germany are still not convinced and are pushing to redirect the resources of the current Recovery Plan to these two spending chapters, using the portion of loans that remained unused because not requested by all countries. In any case – in the name of the supply crisis – Draghi will put on the table three further proposals, which he began to talk about amid the skepticism of the Nordics since last autumn: the launch of joint purchases and storage of gas, as well as a regulatory mechanism thanks at which to separate the price of the methane component from that of other renewable energies. The sum of these measures should help to calm prices. The war in Ukraine demonstrates the weakness of the Union, forced to pay for gas ten times what it cost a year ago.
Second elephant in the room: Ukraine’s application for EU membership. The Council has invited the Commission to express an opinion on the status of candidate country, as foreseen by the treaties, but from the 27 there will be no request to speed up the process. “We will further strengthen our ties and deepen the partnership” reads the draft declaration that will be approved in Versailles, where however the expression “candidate country” does not appear. Nor are there currently references to the membership applications of Georgia and Moldova.
The third elephant is a possible extension of sanctions to the energy sector. The United States has already taken the step by blocking the import of gas and oil. Several European countries, especially those on the Eastern border (with the exception of Hungary), would like to raise the bar. France also insists, but there is great caution on the part of many other governments. The plan presented on Tuesday by the Commission shows that the Union – thanks to alternative supplies, renewables and savings – could this year give up a maximum of one hundred billion cubic meters of Russian gas, two thirds of the total. A sudden interruption would be unbearable. Yesterday it was decided to extend the list of sanctioned personalities, but sooner or later it will be necessary to decide if and when to target the energy sector.
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