by José de Castro
SAO PAULO (Reuters) – The dollar closed up 1.02% against the real on Friday, with investors recomposing part of their positions in the global rally of the US currency, reflecting the search for safety in the face of the resurgence of uncertainties about the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Even so, the dollar accumulated low in the week, with the real benefiting from the almost in-line rise in commodities, which are on track to close the best week in years.
The spot dollar ended this Friday at 5.0783 reais, compared to 5.0268 reais the day before. At the earlier high, it was 5,102 reais. On Wednesday of last week, it came to operate in the range of 4.99 reais.
The exchange felt in this session the global strength of the dollar. The US currency jumped about 1% against a group of rivals from rich countries, pulled by the euro’s plunge below 1.10 dollar.
The movements were the result of a combination of a European economy more vulnerable to the crisis involving Russia and the hypothesis that the divergence in monetary policy will continue to boost the dollar – reinforced by data that earlier showed US job creation in February well above the expected.
For the week, the dollar index jumped 2.1%, the highest since the weeks following the declaration of the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2020.
But against the real, the dollar was not successful in the week shortened by Carnival, in which the quotation fell by 1.51%. The exchange rate continued to be supported by the reading that the assets of emerging markets exporting commodities – a notorious case of Brazil – will benefit from the strength of raw materials, at least in a situation of controlled impacts of the war on the world economy.
According to Goldman Sachs, the beta (sensitivity) of the real to oil prices is one of the highest among the currencies considered by the bank – along with the Norwegian krone. Brent crude closed this Friday at the highest level since February 2013, at US$118.11 per barrel.
Barclays draws attention to the “positive” shock to the exchange resulting from the increase in the terms of trade (in general, the ratio between export and import prices), with 68% of Brazilian exports made up of commodities, and also recalled the possibility of higher interest rates. high in Brazil as inflationary pressures increase.
Barclays continues with a strategy in the options market known as “seagull”, which, in this case, profits if the dollar remains below 5.23 reais – that is, the rate would be a kind of ceiling for the US currency in this case. time.
For former Central Bank director Tony Volpon, part of the recent appreciation of the real reflects structural factors, and he does not rule out the possibility of the exchange rate returning to a level below 5 reais ahead.
“The dollar will stay there (exchange rate around 5 reais), but I don’t see why not work at 4 (reais) and something. It’s quite possible, I don’t see any problem with that,” she said.
In 2022, the dollar depreciates 8.88%, which leaves the real isolated in the position of currency with the best performance in the period.
The Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.6% in 2021, the highest rate since 2010, when there was an expansion of 7.5%, according to data released this Friday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The data positively surprised the market, but did not significantly alter the less favorable prospects for this year, according to economists.
(edited by Isabel Versiani)
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