Turkey’s different approach to Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership would be a big setback. So far, there are still few signs of that: there has been no news of any kind regarding the progress of ratification in Finland either, writes HS’s NATO correspondent Elina Kervinen.
What if Would Turkey only ratify Finland’s NATO membership and leave Sweden’s membership still unratified?
The discussion about this has intensified when Turkey has again recently shown his threats of ratification primarily to Sweden.
At the same time, Finland has both of the prime minister that according to the president communicated that they do not see very big problems with Finland.
The question in itself is essential, that progressing at a different pace would be a big blow to Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO process, which has progressed slowly so far.
Advancing to NATO alone would also most obviously weaken the benefits of membership.
At the same time, it should be kept in mind that there do not seem to be any very clear signs of the divergence of the NATO path between Finland and Sweden for the time being: there has not yet been any news about the ratification of Finland’s membership in Turkey.
As a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta previously stated to HS, the decisive factor will be whether Turkey has given up its demands towards Finland, regarding, for example, the return of those suspected of terrorist acts.
There have been no signs of that yet.
Official bridge on the part of Finland’s ratification alone and its consequences, there has not been much speculation, which is well understood.
Both the president and several ministers have emphasized that Finland and Sweden are moving together in the NATO process.
Read more: What if Turkey only ratified Finland’s NATO membership? “This is a bit of a nervous game,” says Haavisto
At the same time, Finland is also aware that Turkey makes its own decisions on the matter, and Finland’s influence on them may be limited.
“If they start to discriminate or give different answers in their own parliamentary hearings, then of course it’s problematic, but we don’t seem to have a terrible impact on that parliament anyway,” commented the president Sauli Niinistö on Tuesday in Tallinn.
Turkey president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could also get the desired benefits by delaying Sweden’s membership alone.
Finland and at least the fact that other NATO countries also have an interest in ensuring that the membership of both Finland and Sweden is achieved quickly and with honor speaks in favor of Sweden’s joint progress.
Others would underline NATO’s internal contradictions at a time when war is raging in Europe and showing unity is an asset. The recently tightened security political atmosphere does not at least reduce this pressure.
Finland and Sweden moving at different paces would mean that the creation of common defense plans for the region could not proceed as smoothly as has already been thought.
The full benefits of both militarily capable countries coming to the NATO front in the region would not be much.
The situation between Finland and Sweden could also cause some kind of friction.
If Despite everything, Turkey would decide to ratify only Finland’s membership, it would put Finnish decision-makers in an unpleasant situation.
NATO membership will not come into effect until Finland itself, after the ratifications of other countries, approves a motion on the matter in parliament and gives the ratification documents to the United States to be recorded.
Finland could therefore, in principle, slow down the finalization of its own membership before the situation in Sweden is resolved.
Should we do that, the decision-makers should consider.
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