Comment | The EU leader roulette is spinning, as a result of which Hungary's Orbán could rise to the top spot

Brussels

EU institutions the leader roulette really started over the weekend, when the president of the European Council Charles Michel announced that he will run in the June European elections.

The announcement in itself was not dramatic or surprising, as the Belgian Michelin's season was ending in the summer anyway.

The management tasks of the EU institutions are redistributed always after the European elections, based on the current political power relations. In addition to the President of the European Council, the appointment package includes at least the positions of the President of the Commission and the High Representative of the EU, or “Foreign Minister”.

The European Council, which consists of the leaders of the EU countries, is supposed to decide on the appointment package at the summit in Midsummer.

Bridge times, however, leader roulette has its own twist. Appointment issues are always difficult, and if the decision-making reaches a dead end, in theory, the anti-EU Hungarian prime minister could become Michel's successor Viktor Orbán.

According to EU legislation, if the leaders of the EU countries cannot reach an agreement on the successor of the president of the European Council, the task will be temporarily handled by the representative of the current EU presidency. The presidency of the EU Council of Ministers will be transferred from Belgium to Hungary at the beginning of July.

It would mean that the European Council, which sets the EU's major political guidelines, would be led by a man who has said that he is building an “illiberal democracy” in Hungary, which in practice means destroying the rule of law, and who is currently working hard to prevent the EU from continuing to provide financial support to Ukraine.

Since power in the union is extremely decentralized, the appointment would of course not make Orbán the EU's sole power. However, the President of the European Council leads the preparation and discussions of the EU summits and speaks to the outside world with the voice of the EU. It would give Orbán a unique opportunity to throw jabs at the EU machinery.

Because it is safe to assume that Orbán's ascension to the leadership of the European Council is mostly theoretical. Orbán has angered so many member states with his Russian connivance that many EU leaders are ready to do whatever it takes to prevent this possibility.

The simplest way to prevent Orbán's damage appointment is to simply agree on Michel's successor at the summit at the end of June. Michel himself emphasized to the media on Sunday that the summit is almost half a year away, so the member countries now have plenty of time to look for a suitable candidate.

Even in the event that the nomination decisions reach a deadlock – which is not at all impossible, as nationalist and far-right parties seem to strengthen their positions in the member states and in the European Parliament – ​​the EU countries can simply decide to change the nomination rules in such a way that Orbán's path to power is cut off. The decision can be made by a simple majority.

Creative decision-making has been practiced in the EU before. There may be a need for it next summer as well.